Profits soared, but not for all the right reasons.
Soaring capital spending will shift the company from EVs to AI.
Will Optimus be anywhere close to as big as Musk predicts?
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock initially spiked after it reported first-quarter results. At first glance, that made a lot of sense. Investors saw earnings that handily beat expectations, driven by 16% year-over-year revenue growth.
That $22.4 billion in sales disappointed Wall Street observers, though, who expected $22.6 billion. What really shocked Wall Street was more on the other side of the ledger. Capital spending plans soared. That points to CEO Elon Musk's plan to effectively turn the electric vehicle (EV) maker into an artificial intelligence (AI) hub. Here are the three big takeaways from Tesla's latest update.
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Groundbreaking ceremony at the Tesla, xAI, and SpaceX research fab plant. Image source: Tesla.
The initial reaction driving shares higher likely came as stronger-than-expected earnings overshadowed the revenue disappointment. Automotive gross margin, excluding sales of environmental regulatory credits, was a strong 19.2%, aided by higher selling prices and lower material costs that kept expenses in check.
But the company's bottom line was also helped by what the company called an "increase in automotive one-time benefits related to warranty and tariffs," energy segment one-time tariff benefits, and positive currency impacts.
Those factors artificially boosted profitability, giving investors reason to dig deeper into the underlying business. That is where some investors see unlimited potential, while others see mainly downside risks for Tesla shares.
With profitability and sales from its existing business in question, investors need to decide whether they believe in Tesla's future potential beyond today's business. The company itself appears to be focused there.
Investors were surprised to hear an update on capital spending. On the earnings conference call, CEO Elon Musk stated, "We're going to be substantially increasing our investments in the future, so you should expect to see significant -- a very significant increase in capital expenditures." Those investments include a new research fab plant at its Texas site to be shared by Tesla and Musk's other business ventures, xAI, and SpaceX.
Capital expenditures jumped 67% during the quarter, rising to $2.49 billion versus $1.49 billion in the same quarter the previous year. Capex is now projected to exceed $25 billion this year, up from the previous forecast of $20 billion for 2026. That's a considerable increase from $8.6 billion in 2025.
That spending represents the future and how investors see Tesla stock. Shares are wildly overvalued based solely on its current EV business. But that soaring spending has some investors optimistic on potential returns from AI for self-driving technology, the build-out of a robotaxi fleet, and Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot. Investors need to decide for themselves if they believe those potential new revenue streams will come to fruition.
A factor that is driving the stock lower today could be the delayed rollout of robotaxis. Musk does not anticipate substantial revenue from robotaxis until 2027. Musk also hyped Optimus's potential, and not all investors will buy it.
On the conference call, Musk said, "As you've heard me say a few times, I think, Optimus will be our biggest product -- not just Tesla's biggest product ever, but probably the biggest product ever. And I remain convinced of that conclusion."
Not everyone is convinced of that conclusion, though. With Tesla's stock now trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of nearly 200, it will need to deliver results beyond the hype. Until real progress and real earnings come from robotaxis and robotics, investors shouldn't expect the stock to do much more than meander.
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Howard Smith has positions in Tesla. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.