Is It Time to Give Up on The Trade Desk Stock?

The Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD) was once one of the most dependable growth stocks in digital advertising. For years, the company delivered exactly what investors wanted: steady revenue growth and a remarkable streak of beating expectations.

Then things changed in 2025. The stock dropped sharply -- it's down by more than 50% in the last 12 months -- even though the business continued to grow during this period.

That disconnect has left many investors asking a difficult question: Is it finally time to give up on The Trade Desk? Unfortunately, the answer isn't a straightforward yes or no.

Image source: Getty Images.

The business is still growing, but...

Let's start with what didn't break.

The Trade Desk still grew revenue in the high teens (around 18% year over year) in 2025. Customer retention remained above 95%, a level few companies can achieve consistently. The company also continued rolling out Kokai, its artificial intelligence (AI)-driven platform, which now powers close to 100% of its clients' advertiser campaigns. While 2025's performance was weaker than 2024's -- revenue grew by 26% then -- these numbers still point to a healthy business.

So, the stock didn't fall because growth disappeared. It fell because investors' expectations have changed. For instance, The Trade Desk beat revenue estimates for more than 30 consecutive quarters. That consistency helped justify its long-term premium valuation. So, when the company finally missed expectations in the fourth quarter of 2024, it didn't just break a streak; it broke investor confidence.

And that shaken confidence went further downhill in 2025 as the company delivered weaker growth and a massive internal restructuring.

Competition is getting more intense.

At the same time, competition has intensified across the board.

Amazon has built an advertising business generating more than $60 billion annually, and it continues to expand into the demand-side platform (DSP) space. Its model combines retail data, ad inventory, and measurement into a single system. Compared with The Trade Desk, the company does not control any ad inventory or own first-party retail data.

Meanwhile, Alphabet's Google and Meta Platforms continue improving their ad platforms using AI and vast first-party data, which explains the continuous growth despite their gigantic size.

Meanwhile, The Trade Desk still operates as an independent platform, helping advertisers buy across the open internet. That neutrality remains valuable, but it has to compete against ecosystems that control both data and supply.

So should investors throw in the towel?

The quick answer is: It depends on what you expect and what you believe about the future of digital advertising. If you're looking for smooth, predictable growth, The Trade Desk may no longer fit that mold. The stock now requires closer monitoring -- especially around competition, AI performance, and access to premium ad inventory.

But there's another side to the argument. The Trade Desk exists because the open internet needs a neutral platform. Unlike Amazon, Google, or Meta (known as walled gardens), it doesn't own inventory or control user data at scale. Instead, it helps advertisers buy across many publishers while objectively comparing performance.

That role can become more important -- not less -- if the advertising market stays fragmented. As more platforms, retailers, and streaming services compete for ad dollars, advertisers may still need a tool that helps them optimize across all of them, rather than committing to just a few big ecosystems.

In that sense, The Trade Desk doesn't try to outcompete the walled gardens on their terms. It tries to win on its own turf. Of course, that business model only works if advertisers continue to value independence and cross-platform transparency. Besides, the adtech company must also compete (and win) against peers leveraging AI technology to gain market shares.

Putting everything together

Let's start by saying that The Trade Desk's business model is not broken (yet). It's facing challenges adapting to the new competitive and technological environments, making it more difficult to predict what will happen to the company in the coming quarters/years.

But whether to give up on the stock depends on one thing: Do investors think that there will be a need for open internet beyond the major tech ecosystems, and are they convinced The Trade Desk can navigate this storm?

If the answer is yes, it's probably too early to give up on the stock.

Lawrence Nga has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and The Trade Desk. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.