Wall Street Thinks This Company Will Benefit From the Current Natural Gas Shock, but Does That Make It a Buy?

The Iran war and the constriction of the Strait of Hormuz have shaken the global economy with fears of possible long-term energy shocks. And with no end to the conflict in sight, oil and gas prices have been extremely volatile.

While the macro effects of the conflict are both large and unpredictable, many on Wall Street have become bullish on Venture Global (NYSE: VG), a major U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter, as the war continues. The stock has more than doubled so far in 2026 -- up 51% since the start of the war -- and even if the conflict ends, it may have more room to run if supplies are still short. Currently, the company is the second-largest LNG exporter in the U.S. and has its eyes on the No. 1 position.

Image source: Getty Images.

Why LNG matters globally

LNG is a critical global commodity, playing an important role in generating electricity, creating fertilizer, and even supplying residential heating. About 20% of global supplies of LNG are produced by Qatar and flow through the Strait of Hormuz, and a prolonged disruption will have substantial impacts throughout the global economy, with that supply now dramatically reduced.

Energy companies could benefit from higher prices and bringing more supply to market. Venture Global is well positioned to take advantage. Management said on a March 2 earnings call with analysts that the company has the most available cargoes to sell on the spot market now, directly filling the void created by blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.

Here are some significant bullish calls on the stock, which was trading at about $15 on Wednesday morning:

• JPMorgan Chase raised its price target to $19 from $11.
• Morgan Stanley made the most dramatic call and upgraded the company all the way from underweight to overweight, more than doubling its price target from $8 to $22.
• Goldman Sachs also raised its price target to $18.50, up from $15.

Analysts cited the company's outsize exposure to rising global LNG prices as the main reason for bullishness. Earlier this year -- before the Iran conflict -- Kpler Insight projected that global supplies of LNG would grow to 475 metric tons per year, so that already was a good sign for the company.

Why Venture Global now has more momentum

It's not just the global outlook that favors the LNG giant. Other recent events could put additional wind in its sails.

The company settled a dispute with Edison -- the Italian subsidiary of French energy company EDF -- over natural gas supplies in the Calcasieu Pass in the Gulf of Mexico, which means the company can now supply more LNG to Europe, where it is badly needed.

It also recently announced the completion of an $8.6 billion development deal, underscoring its ambition to be the largest exporter of LNG in the United States.

Finally, Venture Global recently announced that it will buy nine tankers, making it the first U.S. LNG producer to own its own fleet. This will give it logistics advantages over rival firms.

Still, compared to classic energy plays like ExxonMobil -- which has a diversified business and a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.17 -- Venture Global is a high-risk, high-reward bet, with a considerably higher ratio of 3.4.

Pure-play energy bets can be very profitable in the right environment but are also volatile, and with the outlook on the Iran conflict changing daily, LNG supply in the market can be hard to predict, even though LNG demand tends to be stable globally.

Here's what I mean by volatile: Investors who bought VG earlier this year have done well, but the stock still has not returned to its $25 IPO price from January 2025. With a price-to-earnings ratio of around 19 (compared to ExxonMobil at around 16), you could argue that it's fairly priced at the moment.

But given that LNG supplies should remain tight and the demand outlook stable for the foreseeable future, there's an opportunity in Venture Global for investors looking for growth and who have an appetite for risk.

Matt Hunter has no position in the stocks mentioned in this article. JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan Chase. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.