Where Will CoreWeave Stock Be in 1 Year?
Key Points
CoreWeave's debt load and variable-rate interest payments consume nearly a third of revenue, creating financial strain that could intensify if rates rise.
The company's biggest customers are natural competitors who may eventually bring AI compute capacity in-house.
OpenAI's projected $115 billion in losses through 2029 raises questions about whether CoreWeave's largest non-hyperscaler customer can honor its commitments.
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CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV) is one of the fastest-growing companies in artificial intelligence (AI). Revenue hit $5.1 billion in 2025 -- up 168% year over year -- and the company is guiding for more than twice that in 2026. Its backlog swelled more than 300% to $66.8 billion.
I see why bulls believe in this one, but there's a gap between revenue growth and financial health that deserves more attention -- especially over the next 12 months.
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The debt math is brutal
CoreWeave carries over $21 billion in total debt. A significant chunk sits in variable-rate facilities averaging around 11%, which means its already substantial borrowing costs could get worse. In fourth-quarter 2025, interest expense hit $388 million for a single quarter. Nearly a third of its top-line revenue goes to interest payments alone.
The company's headline 168% revenue growth looks a little different when you consider its long-term debt grew significantly faster -- from just shy of $8 billion in 2024 to $21 billion in 2025.
Image created by JesterAI.
The customer concentration problem
CoreWeave's main customers are a who's who of AI and big tech. While that may seem like a good thing, I'm not so sure. The lion's share comes from Microsoft and other hyperscalers. These are natural competitors, and I believe that they are letting CoreWeave and other start-ups take on the lion's share of risk as AI takes off. If things work out, they will want to cut costs by cutting out intermediaries and bringing compute capacity in-house. If things don't go according to plan, they are shielded from much of the downside.
Its one customer that doesn't fit this mold -- OpenAI -- is actually the one that concerns me most. The ChatGPT creator projects $14 billion in losses for 2026, with cumulative losses potentially reaching $115 billion through 2029. In order to make good on its hundreds of billions in commitments, OpenAI must continue to raise funds on a mind-boggling scale.
The headlines make it seem like it won't have any issues. Its latest $110 billion raise comes with a host of strings attached. Only about $25 billion is confirmed as near-term cash, while the rest is contingent on milestones that are far from guaranteed -- or that come in the form of compute credits, not money in the bank.
Where will CoreWeave stock be in 1 year?
Here's what makes the one-year window so critical. With a slowing economy and a war in Iran, the chance of a recession in the next year is high. At the same time, inflation could spike, forcing the Federal Reserve to hike rates. Remember, much of CoreWeave's debt is variable-rate. Rising interest rates could make its obligations too much of a burden. It could soon face major hurdles in acquiring new financing, which it needs if it is to turn its backlog into actual revenue.
Even if this doesn't happen in the next few months, I think the threat of it is enough to leave CoreWeave's stock struggling to keep up with the market.
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Johnny Rice has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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