Bitcoin Needs a Monster Rally to Hit $150,000 by December -- and Prediction Markets See Only an 11% Shot

The price of Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is down more than 40% from its all-time high. Meanwhile, gold is trading near record highs. This is an important dichotomy as geopolitical events lead to increased market volatility. Far from being a hedge against market risk, as some market watchers had hoped, Bitcoin has turned out to be a volatility risk all on its own at exactly the point when investors probably hoped it would serve as a bulwark.

Where is Bitcoin going?

Prediction markets are a relatively new tool for monitoring sentiment across a wide range of topics, from the outcome of a political race to the weather. There's also a prediction market around Bitcoin. The numbers are interesting. It appears that prediction markets suggest an 11% chance for Bitcoin to hit $150,000 by the end of 2026. That would push the cryptocurrency to a new high, well above the roughly $126,000 it reached in October.

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What's more interesting is that the chance of revisiting just $120,000 is only about 21%, which isn't much better. If you bought at the recent highs, prediction markets aren't looking pretty for you right now. And that's an important factor to keep in mind as you consider why you bought Bitcoin in the first place.

Bitcoin hasn't proven itself yet

Cryptocurrencies are a speculative asset. The huge price swings are a sign that emotions drive price movements. Still, one of the big argument in favors of owning Bitcoin is that it could serve as a store of wealth, making it analogous to gold. However, as geopolitical tensions have risen, gold has soared while Bitcoin has plunged. And if prediction markets are any indication, Bitcoin isn't likely to regain the ground it has lost during the past few months.

If you bought Bitcoin expecting it to be a hedge against market risk, it hasn't lived up to its billing as digital gold. Quite the contrary, it has exacerbated the financial risks you face. It may be time to rethink your Bitcoin exposure if you are worried about the global economy and the stock market amid intensifying geopolitical tensions.

Be careful with Bitcoin

The cryptocurrency concept is interesting. However, the market for these securities is still very new and largely untested. That's true even of Bitcoin, the granddaddy of the crypto sector. At this point, it's still unclear what makes cryptocurrencies valuable. The notion that they are a store of wealth in turbulent times, however, is one theory that doesn't seem to be panning out as well as expected.

Reuben Gregg Brewer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.