Duolingo Stock Plummets Even as User Growth Soars. Time to Buy?
Key Points
The educational technology app delivered exceptionally strong user and revenue growth in its most recent quarter.
Management expects a top-line slowdown as the company intentionally inhibits near-term monetization to prioritize user expansion.
At today's sky-high valuation, investors are assuming near-flawless execution in the years ahead.
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Shares of educational technology specialist Duolingo (NASDAQ: DUOL) fell 14% on Friday, following the release of the company's fourth-quarter results. While Duolingo reported strong financial results for its fourth quarter, investors were spooked by management's strategic shift to prioritize user growth over monetization.
The post-earnings drop worsened an already brutal start to the year for the stock, leaving it significantly underperforming the broader market.
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With the stock down sharply year to date, is this a buying opportunity? Or does a shifting growth profile warrant an even bigger discount?
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Q4 results: what is going right
Duolingo's fourth-quarter performance demonstrated exactly why the language-learning platform has been a market favorite -- until recently, of course.
Starting with its top line, revenue rose 35% year over year to $282.9 million. This strength was fueled by expanding adoption of the platform's core product. Daily active users increased 30% year over year to 52.7 million. Paid subscribers also climbed an impressive 28% year over year to 12.2 million at period end. And total bookings, a leading indicator of future revenue, increased 24% year over year to $336.8 million.
Duolingo's profitability was impressive, too. Net income for the quarter surged to $42.0 million, up from $13.9 million in the year-ago period.
Additionally, the company announced a new $400 million share repurchase program, reflecting its growing free cash flow generation; during 2025, Duolingo's free cash flow rose 36% year over year to $360.4 million.
Looking ahead
But the problem is not the quarter. It's the guidance.
Duolingo is intentionally throttling its near-term financial results to chase a larger user base, management explained in the company's quarterly update. Specifically, it is removing friction from its free user experience to drive word-of-mouth adoption, aiming to reach 100 million daily active users by 2028. This means sacrificing near-term monetization to expand the top of the funnel.
Management quantified this trade-off, estimating that it is investing more than $50 million in foregone bookings to support the free user experience. Additionally, the company is leaning into new subjects, including math, music, and chess, to drive this expansion.
"But the short-term implication is that this year will see slower bookings growth and lower profitability," the company said in its shareholder letter.
And management's financial guidance already reflects this reality. For the first quarter, Duolingo guided to 25% revenue growth. That is a slowdown from 35% growth in the fourth quarter. And the deceleration is expected to continue, with full-year 2026 guidance calling for revenue growth of just 15% to 18%. Even more, total bookings growth is projected to slow further to 10% to 12% this year.
Topping it all off, management expects its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margin to contract to about 25% in 2026 as it invests more heavily in marketing and AI (artificial intelligence) features.
This brings us to the real issue for the stock.
At about 32 times earnings (adjusted to exclude a massive one-time tax benefit the company received in 2025), investors are implicitly assuming the company can maintain strong top-line growth and steady margin expansion for the foreseeable future
The risk, however, is that this strategic pivot takes longer than expected to reaccelerate bookings. And the stock's premium valuation gives investors very little margin of safety if the company's growth story never reaccelerates after this period of platform optimization.
Clearly, the business is executing on its long-term vision, and its balance sheet is a key strength. But at today's valuation, the market is pricing in near-perfect execution over the next several years, raising concern about the company's guidance for deceleration.
So, is the stock a buy on this dip? While its stock has fallen enough to earn it a spot on investors' watchlists, it's not cheap enough to make it a clear buy, in my opinion.
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Daniel Sparks and his clients have no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Duolingo. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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