Will Nvidia Soar After Nov. 19? History Offers a Strikingly Clear Answer.

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has been a winning bet for investors over the past few years, and this is thanks to the company's leading position in a key industry: artificial intelligence (AI). The AI market, today worth about $300 billion, is expected to reach into the trillions by the early 2030s. Interest in AI is growing in leaps and bounds because this technology has what it takes to make companies more efficient and to supercharge innovation.

All of this should lead to lower costs and higher earnings, and that's pushed companies to rush into AI. Nvidia designs the most powerful AI chips around -- key tools, as they fuel critical AI tasks -- and this has translated into soaring earnings and fantastic stock performance. Over the past three years, Nvidia stock has advanced 1,000%.

Now, as Nvidia approaches a significant catalyst on Nov. 19, investors wonder how the stock will react afterward. Will Nvidia stock soar? History offers us a strikingly clear answer.

Image source: Getty Images.

Nvidia and the AI market

First, though, let's take a quick look at Nvidia's recent story and the AI market environment. As mentioned, Nvidia dominates the AI chip market, designing the graphics processing units (GPUs) that power tasks such as the training and inferencing of large language models. Technology giants, including Microsoft and Amazon, are among the company's biggest customers as they buy Nvidia platforms to offer their cloud customers.

As the AI boom gained momentum in recent years, Nvidia saw revenue take off -- for example, the company reported $130 billion in revenue in the latest fiscal year, up from $27 billion two years ago. And right now, the AI infrastructure buildout is in action, with tech giants from Alphabet to Meta Platforms pledging to increase spending to support AI in the coming quarters. Nvidia chief executive officer Jensen Huang even predicted AI infrastructure spending might reach $4 trillion by the end of the decade.

All of this is great news for Nvidia, as this spending clearly will involve investment in high-powered GPUs and related products.

Investors, recognizing this, piled into Nvidia stock in recent years. But over the past several weeks, Nvidia and other AI players have lost some momentum. This is as investors, seeing valuations climb, worried that an AI bubble may be on the horizon.

What happens on Nov. 19

Now, let's consider the catalyst ahead. Nvidia is set to report fiscal 2026 third-quarter earnings on Nov. 19 after the market closes. Will the stock climb afterward?

If we look back at the past 10 quarterly earnings announcements, from May 2023 to August 2025, Nvidia stock rose on half of those occasions in the five trading days following those reports. So Nvidia's earnings reports aren't linked to a particular performance in the short term. But, over a longer period, the results are much more compelling.

Over the past nine earnings reports, Nvidia has advanced seven times in the six-month period that followed, and every gain has been in double digits. (I included the May 28, 2025 report since we almost have reached the six-month mark, but I didn't include the Aug. 27 2025 earnings report, since six months haven't yet passed.)

So, history offers a strikingly clear answer to our question: Though short-term performance is unpredictable, Nvidia most often rises in the months following its earnings reports.

Of course, history isn't always right, so no one can guarantee this pattern will continue into the future. But history can offer us a general picture of what has happened in particular situations -- so it's a good idea to take a look at how a stock has performed over time following specific events or earnings releases.

In Nvidia's case, history suggests there's reason to be excited about Nvidia's performance several months after its earnings reports -- even if the stock doesn't take off right away. And if Nvidia goes against the trend and doesn't soar in the months after its latest earnings report, the best news of all is this top AI stock still has what it takes to deliver investors a win over the long term.

Adria Cimino has positions in Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.