BioAge Labs Stock Just Soared. Does It Have More Fuel to Climb Higher?

Most of 2025 has been disappointing for BioAge Labs (NASDAQ: BIOA) shareholders, but things are looking up. During the week that ended Oct. 25, shares of the obesity drug developer soared by 46.6%.

On Oct. 22, Samantha Semenkow, a sell-side analyst at Citigroup, upgraded her bank's rating on BioAge Labs from neutral to buy. Semenkow also raised her price target to $10 per share.

Citi's new price target for BioAge Labs implies a gain of about 32% from the stock's closing price on Oct. 24. Unfortunately, those gains are a long way from guaranteed. Let's gauge this stock's ability to continue outperforming by looking at what drove it higher, and at the road ahead for its experimental weight management drugs.

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Why did BioAge Labs' stock jump?

The drugs Wegovy from Novo Nordisk and Zepbound from Eli Lilly both limit appetite by targeting GLP-1 receptors in the pancreas. Global sales of GLP-1 drugs are expected to reach $95 billion annually by 2030, according to Goldman Sachs.

But BioAge is taking a unique approach to weight management with BGE-102. The experimental small-molecule drug enters the brain, where it inhibits NLRP3, a protein implicated in a broad range of diseases. On Oct. 22, Ventyx Biosciences announced positive results from a trial with a different experimental NLRP3 inhibitor. VTX3232 didn't reduce patients' weight, but it did improve some cardiovascular risk factors.

Semenkow cited the company's lead candidate, BGE-102, as a reason for the upgrade. NLRP3-driven inflammation in the brain can lead to several health issues, including energy intake dysregulation.

In August, the company began dosing patients in a phase 1 trial. If weight reductions observed in preclinical testing carry over to clinical trial results, this stock will surge. Obese animals treated with BGE-102 reduced their weight by up to 15%, and adding Wegovy to the mix increased the weight loss to about 25%.

Why BioAge Labs' stock is super risky

It's going to be a long time before we know whether BGE-102 safely reduces weight for humans. In August, the company said it expected to report top-line data from a single ascending dose (SAD) portion of its phase 1 trial with BGE-102 by the end of the year. Unfortunately, a single dose won't tell us much about long-term safety or efficacy.

The second part of its phase 1 trial will include daily doses over a two-week period, but two weeks probably isn't enough time to record significant weight reductions. The company doesn't expect to present data from a phase 2 proof-of-concept trial until late 2026.

BioAge Labs shares soared during the week of Oct. 24, but it still has a very low market cap of just $272 million. This means raising capital by selling new shares, either at recent prices or below, would make it nearly impossible for long-term shareholders to realize a positive return.

BioAge finished June with $313 million in cash after burning through $21.6 million in the second quarter. It estimates its existing cash is sufficient to fund operations through 2029. This estimate seems overly optimistic for a company that achieved an annualized cash burn rate of more than $86 million before it began dosing clinical trial participants.

If BGE-102 produces excellent clinical trial results next year, the stock could soar severalfold. Since it's a pre-commercial company without any products to sell, disappointing results could also lead to heavy losses that investors can't recover from. We know so little about BGE-102 that the risk outweighs the potential reward by miles. It's probably best to watch this stock's story play out from a safe distance.

Citigroup is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Cory Renauer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool recommends Novo Nordisk. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.