If Your Social Security Check Is Higher Than This, Expect an Above-Average 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA)

Retirees are almost certainly going to see more money in their Social Security checks starting in 2026. That's because a cost-of-living adjustment is all but guaranteed at this point.

Cost-of-living adjustments, or COLAs, are available in most, but not all, years and are a vital part of the Social Security benefits program to help ensure seniors do not lose buying power. However, some seniors get a larger COLA than others do.

Here's how you can tell if your cost-of-living adjustment is likely to be above average.

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Will your COLA be bigger than the raise your fellow retirees collect?

In 2026, your COLA is going to beat the average if your 2025 retirement benefit is above $2,008.31 per month.

Wondering why retirees getting more than $2,008.31 will get a raise that's above average?

It's simple. That's the average benefit for retired workers as of Social Security's August 2025 snapshot. And Social Security cost-of-living adjustments equal a percentage of your benefits. This means if your benefit is above average, the amount of your raise will be, too.

Let's take a look at an example.

The Senior Citizens League's September estimate says that the COLA is expected to be 2.7% in 2026. If you receive a below-average monthly benefit of $1,500, then your cost-of-living adjustment would come in at around $40.50 extra per month. On the other hand, if you are receiving the 2025 maximum benefit of $5,108, then a 2.7% Social Security raise would increase your monthly benefits by $137.92, or close to $100 more per month.

Of course, both sets of retirees get the same percentage increase, as the 2.7% benefits bump applies across the board. It's just that if you are getting a larger benefit check, you get a bigger dollar-for-dollar bump since you have a bigger amount to start with. This is one benefit of taking steps to increase your Social Security checks by doing things like working longer or delaying your benefits claim until after full retirement age.

How big will your COLA be next year?

While it is clear that retirees with checks above $2,008.31 will get an above-average cost-of-living adjustment, it's not yet clear exactly how much Social Security benefits will increase in 2026.

While the Senior Citizens League is estimating a 2.7% adjustment to benefits, that's just an estimate based on data that's currently available. The official announcement of the COLA is expected in mid-October; however, with a government shutdown in effect at the start of the month, it's possible that the announcement will be delayed as the Bureau of Labor Statistics may not make the necessary data available on time to announce the final number on the normal schedule.

See, COLAs are based on year-over-year changes to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). The average CPI-W increase is calculated for the third quarter of the year, and this determines how big your benefits increase will be.

COLAs are calculated this way because the goal of the annual raise is to help ensure that Social Security benefits don't lose too much buying power as a result of inflation. As the cost of goods and services increases, benefits must increase as well. Otherwise, benefits would buy less each year, leaving you increasingly reliant on your retirement plans to make ends meet.

Unfortunately, if the Bureau of Labor Statistics doesn't release the September data in October as it usually does, the COLA announcement will be delayed. Retirees will want to keep watch in mid-October to see if the announcement does happen on schedule, or if the government has reopened so that the right data reports can be made available.

If that doesn't happen, seniors will have to continue to wait, and you will have nothing more than estimates to go on as you do your retirement planning for the upcoming year.

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