If You Buy IonQ Stock Now, Will You Be a Millionaire in 10 Years?

Key Points

• IonQ's trapped ion approach is different from most quantum computing competitors.

• Some companies are saying quantum computing will become mainstream by 2035-2040.

• 10 stocks we like better than IonQ ›

Quantum computing stocks are starting to become quite popular among investors. One of the top picks in this space is IonQ (NYSE: IONQ), and its stock has had an incredible September. The stock is up around 59% this month, boosted by a few headlines.

That's a ton of growth in a short time frame. Is there more ahead? Well, analysts are saying that the quantum computing market is expected to be mainstream a decade from now.

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IonQ's technology is different from most quantum computing companies

IonQ and other quantum computing pure plays got their stock price boost this month thanks to one primary factor: The interest rate cut. As interest rates fall, borrowing becomes cheaper and start-ups can take advantage of that cheaper borrowing to help fund their business expansions. Also, safer investments like bonds become less attractive because their rates of return fall. To produce meaningful returns, some investors turn to more risky investments, like quantum computing start-ups.

Another reason for IonQ's strength over the past few days is that its acquisition of Oxford Ionics was approved. This acquisition combines two of the leaders in trapped ion technology, which is the quantum computing method these two companies focus on.

There are a handful of ways to approach quantum computing, using trapped ions to serve as qubits, which is a somewhat niche technology. Most of the big tech companies involved in the quantum computing arms race are using superconducting quantum computing, which involves cooling a particle down to near absolute zero and utilizing its quantum mechanics to facilitate cubit calculations. IonQ's trapped ion approach doesn't require these supercooled temperatures; its quantum computer can be run at room temperature.

IonQ's approach provides several advantages, namely being cheaper to operate and easier to achieve scale. Furthermore, the trapped ion approach has shown the greatest potential for accuracy. IonQ currently holds world records for both one-qubit gate fidelity (99.999%) and two-gate fidelity (99.97%). This accuracy measure far exceeds what some of the superconducting companies are putting out, and having an accurate quantum computer is key to gaining early adopters.

The primary downside to trapped ion quantum computers is that their processing speeds are far slower (although still exponentially faster than traditional computers). However, I think most companies are more likely to adopt a cheaper and more accurate option in the beginning. This will allow IonQ to establish a foothold in the industry and potentially outlast all of the other options to become the primary winner in this space.

But will that be enough to turn a meager investment into $1 million?

IonQ has a long way to go before making investors $1 million

For IonQ to be a legitimate millionaire-maker stock, it would need to produce returns of 100x or greater. This would transform a $10,000 investment into $1 million. At IonQ's current market cap of $21 billion, this would result in IonQ being a $2.1 trillion company.

It's highly unlikely that this won't happen overnight, but it would rank IonQ among the largest companies in the world if the stock delivers 100x returns. I don't think this level of return is realistic.

Quantum computing has several important use cases, like logistics networks and AI; however, most quantum computing applications are hybrid approaches where existing computing infrastructure is boosted by quantum computing technology. This limits its upside, and IonQ itself has stated that it believes there will be a total addressable market of $87 billion by 2035.

One company can't capture an entire market, but that's about what it would take for IonQ to be worth $2.1 trillion a decade from now. If IonQ is given a 25 times sales valuation with $87 billion in revenue, that would value the stock at $2.2 trillion. Clearly, IonQ has a long way to go before achieving this, and the stock is currently being driven higher on hype.

The world is still a few years out from widespread commercial adoption of quantum computing, and there's no guarantee that IonQ's technology will be the best in the industry. However, I think that the odds are good that IonQ's is. There's a ton of risk in the stock, so investors need to be careful not to invest too much of their portfolio in IonQ. However, if IonQ turns out to be the dominant winner in the quantum computing space, I have no doubt that it will provide significant returns from this level; just don't expect them to make you a millionaire.

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Keithen Drury has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.