Strategy Stock Has Outperformed Bitcoin Since January 2024. Should Investors Be Worried About Its Recent 20% Pullback?

Key Points

• Down 20% since July, Strategy still trades at a notable premium to its Bitcoin holdings.

• Investors appear to be losing faith in the Bitcoin treasury company narrative.

• The performance gap between Strategy and Bitcoin is likely to tighten as investors recalibrate their expectations.

• 10 stocks we like better than Strategy ›

Since January 2024, it's hard to find a better-performing stock than Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR). It's up a mind-blowing 450%. Using a strategy to accumulate as much Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) as it can, it has far surpassed the performance of Bitcoin, which has risen only 167%.

During the summer, Strategy (the company formerly known as MicroStrategy) soared to 450. But since mid-July, storm clouds have appeared. Strategy now trades around $350. Should investors be worried?

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The Bitcoin treasury company narrative is getting stale

One reason for concern is the change in sentiment in the crypto market. Bitcoin treasury companies like Strategy once looked innovative, imaginative, and forward-looking. Now, they just look like a gimmick.

Image source: Getty Images.

Companies -- many of which have never bought Bitcoin before -- are now raising hundreds of millions of dollars from outside investors to buy Bitcoin. In some cases, these companies are appearing out of thin air, with the help of a little financial sleight-of-hand. All told, more than 100 companies have now reimagined themselves as Bitcoin treasury companies.

S&P 500 chart by TradingView.

Strategy pioneered the Bitcoin treasury company model in 2020. Investors were willing to pay a premium for the company because the price of Bitcoin kept going up, and Strategy kept reassuring investors that it had found a clever new way to accumulate Bitcoin on the cheap.

Is Strategy valued correctly?

Compare Strategy's Bitcoin holdings to its market cap, and you'll see why it may still be overvalued. The company now holds 638,985 BTC worth about $75 billion. Its current market cap is $100 billion.

There's still a gap, but it's shrinking. And as investors attach less of a premium to Strategy's Bitcoin holdings, the loss of confidence could pull down the price of Strategy until the gap disappears entirely.

I generally agree with this new way of thinking. Strategy's ability to outperform Bitcoin for such a long period of time made little sense. How long could it really out-Bitcoin Bitcoin?

For now, I'm avoiding Bitcoin treasury companies. I'd rather get my exposure to Bitcoin by holding it directly.

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Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.