USD/CAD: Limited upside within bearish setup – Scotiabank

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is holding relatively firm against a stronger US Dollar (USD), helped by resilient risk sentiment and record S&P 500 levels. Short‑term USD/CAD technicals remain bearish despite a three‑day bounce, with the bank expecting limited upside and strong resistance in the low/mid‑1.37s, while support is seen at 1.3625 and then the low‑1.35s.

Bearish bias despite modest USD bounce

"The CAD is easing marginally in early trade but has held little changed through most of the overnight session. The CAD’s resistance to the USD’s broader advance today leaves it as a relative outperformer among the major currencies."

"Domestic news and developments remain limited and the intraday trend in the CAD continues to depend primarily on the broader dollar tone and the risk backdrop. Stocks are down modestly this morning but the S&P 500 reached another record high yesterday and there is little sign of the bull mood weakening at this point."

"Spot is firmer for a third consecutive day but minor dollar gains are not impinging on the weak technical undertone for USDCAD at this point."

"The USD’s advance reflects a minor consolidation from Tuesday’s low on the short-term charts (potential bear flag or wedge pattern) and trend strength oscillators remain bearishly aligned for the USD across intraday, daily and weekly studies."

"We continue to look for limited USD gains and firm resistance in the low/mid-1.37 zone. Support remains 1.3625 ahead of a drop back to the low 1.35s."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)