Canada: Automotive shock and energy support – NBC

National Bank of Canada (NBC) analysts note that Canada’s merchandise trade deficit widened sharply in January, reaching its largest level in five months, mainly due to temporary disruptions in the automotive sector. They highlight steep declines in automotive exports and related imports, partly offset by stronger natural gas exports to the United States following an unusually cold January and higher demand.

Auto disruptions widen trade deficit

"Canada's merchandise trade deficit expanded much more than economists had expected in January and was the widest in five months."

"This surprise was largely due to temporary disruptions in the automotive industry which led to the largest decline in nominal exports since April 2025."

"With the United States being the main destination for our automotive exports, we might have expected our trade surplus with our southern neighbour to shrink more than it did, but the loss was partially offset by a 23.7% increase in our natural gas exports."

"It should be noted that the United States experienced an unusually cold January, which contributed to increased demand (and prices) in this segment."

"Lower imports, meanwhile, partly reflected a drop in the automotive segment (for the same reasons mentioned above), but also a decline in the electronics category that Statistics Canada attributed to reduced imports of smartphones from China amid a semiconductor shortage."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)