Fed’s Barkin: Job growth is down, but labor supply is also slowing

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin spoke about the economic outlook at the Top of Virginia Economic Summit hosted by Shenandoah University on Tuesday. He claimed that the labor market seems balanced, but firms say labor is available, and recent layoffs warrant caution.

Key quotes

There is still pressure on both sides of the US central bank's mandate.  

He hopes coming data, along with community surveys, will provide clarity on direction of economy.  

Inflation is above target but isn't likely to increase, with consumer push-back, productivity Improvements helping it slow.  

Job growth is down, but labor supply is also slowing.  

There is a lot to learn between now and the next meeting.  

Credit card spending and third-quarter earnings remain healthy, but some sectors and consumers are struggling.  

Labor market seems in balance, but firms say labor is available, and recent layoffs are a cause for caution.  

In interview says he is not hearing that companies are actively planning further layoffs.  

The labor market is softening, but doesn't think it will soften that much more.  

Inflation is above target but not likely to accelerate.  

It's hard to declare victory on either mandate, but also not clear either requires a response.  

Inflation does not appear headed higher, but also not clear it is heading back to 2%; Unemployment likely to edge higher but perhaps not by much.  

Without compelling data it is hard to get a broad consensus.  

The upside of more consensus is the ability of markets to set expectations.  

Prior beliefs about issues like tariffs are not evidence of politicization.  

Policy is still modestly restrictive."

balanced, but firms say labor is available, and recent layoffs warrant