USD near recent highs amid December rate uncertainty – OCBC

US Dollar (USD) hovers near recent high but failed to make much headway. Uncertainty over Dec meeting outcome continues to swing sentiments. Dollar Index (DXY) last seen at 100.18 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

DXY trades around 100.18 as Fed cut odds swing

"Overnight, Waller and Daly supporting Dec cut, further helped to boost Dec rate cut probability back to 77%. Despite the swings, the quantum of cut from now till end-2026 remained relatively steady at around 90bps cumulative of cuts. 'Noise' from Fedspeaks should diminish as there is no more scheduled Fedspeaks this week while Fed communications enter a blackout starting this Sat."

"Technical price action (spinning top) indicates indecision and also signaled some weakness in the recent USD rebound (likely in anticipation of catalyst). 2-way trades are likely to persist in the interim. Support at 99.50/70 levels (21 DMA, 61.8% fibo), 99.10 (50% fibo retracement of May high to Sep low). Resistance at 100.6 (76.4% fibo)."