A 46.3 million ounce silver shortfall is keeping pressure on an already tight market

A 46.3 million ounce silver shortfall is keeping pressure on a market that was already tight before 2026 got going, according to the World Silver Survey 2026 released on Wednesday.

Reportedly, global demand stayed above supply for the fifth year in a row in 2025, the deficit smaller than it was in 2024, but it still put more stress on above-ground stocks.

The 88-page report was released by the Silver Institute and researched and produced by Metals Focus, the London-based precious metals consultancy. Its numbers show that total silver demand slipped 2% last year to 1.13 billion ounces, but that top-line figure does not mean the market loosened up.

A strong rise in investment demand helped keep the market under pressure even as some other segments weakened. Coin and net bar demand rose 14%, which nearly canceled out declines elsewhere.

Industrial use lost steam as investors bought more silver and regional demand split sharply

Industrial silver demand fell 3% to 657.4 million ounces in 2025 after four straight years of strong growth. Electrical and electronics demand dropped 2%, but the market still got support from spending tied to AI infrastructure, solid automotive use, and healthy power grid investment.

But solar demand weakened, according to the survey, because strong competition and higher silver raw material costs pushed photovoltaic manufacturers to speed up thrifting and substitution.

Demand for brazing alloys still rose 1%, helped by the auto and aerospace sectors. Other industrial demand fell 7% because the ethylene oxide market slowed.

By region, most of the silver demand losses in 2025 came from East and South Asia, while Europe and North America stayed kind of stable, according to the survey.

Coin and net bar demand turned higher after two straight years of decline. India led with a 33% increase. Europe recorded its first rise in three years. The Middle East and China posted multi-fold gains as investor interest rose with prices and from a low earlier base. The US moved the other way and logged a third straight yearly decline. The report tied that to President Trump’s election, which reduced safe-haven buying, while profit-taking during the rally, especially in the first nine months of the year, also hurt US demand.

Mine output rose, recycling hit a 12-year high, and the 2026 silver deficit looks set to widen

Global silver mine production rose by 3% to 846.6 million ounces in 2025, mostly thanks to stronger by-product output from copper operations in Peru and the ramp-up of Polymetal JSC’s Prognoz mine in Russia.

China and Morocco also added smaller gains, though they were partly offset by weaker output from key operations in Mexico and a decline in Indonesia. Regionally, North America fell 3% to its lowest level in ten years.

Central and South America rose 5%, while Asia slipped 1%. Lead and zinc mines remained the largest source of silver, though their share edged lower year over year. Output from gold operations rose 5%, while copper operations increased 6%.

Recycling rose 2% to 197.6 million ounces in 2025, the highest level in 12 years. Heavy selling of jewelry and silverware supplied much of that material, though refinery bottlenecks limited volumes. In industrial recycling, scrap from ethylene oxide increased while e-scrap fell. For 2026, total silver demand is forecast to slip another 2% to 1.11 billion ounces.

Jewelry and silverware are both expected to post double-digit losses as high prices keep biting. Industrial demand is projected to fall 3%, mainly because photovoltaic offtake is expected to slow further. Some of that weakness should be offset by an 18% jump in coin and net bar demand.

Global mine production is expected to stay flat as grade and operating pressure across major producing regions offsets modest growth at a small number of assets. That leaves the structural silver deficit widening to 46.3 million ounces.

Analysts at BlackRock and JPMorgan expect silver to be worth over $80 per ounce by the end of 2026, with $100 possible by 2030.

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