What’s behind the U.S. move to ease Cuba oil restrictions?

A Russian tanker carrying hundreds of thousands of barrels of crude oil sailed toward Cuba this week after President Donald Trump reversed course on blocking oil supplies to the island, saying he sees no reason to stop other countries from sending fuel there.

Trump made the remarks as a sanctioned Russian vessel made its way across the Atlantic toward Cuban shores.

“If a country wants to send some oil into Cuba right now, I have no problem with that, whether it’s Russia or not,” Trump said.

He added that he believed Cuba’s government was already falling apart on its own.

“Cuba is finished. They have a bad regime. They have very bad and corrupt leadership, and whether or not they get a boat of oil, it’s not going to matter. I’d prefer letting it in, whether it’s Russia or anybody else, because the people need heat and cooling and all of the other things that you need.”

The tanker in question belongs to what is known as a shadow fleet, vessels that continue operating despite being under international sanctions placed on Russia after it invaded Ukraine in 2022. The ship is reported to be carrying around 730,000 barrels of crude oil.

Three months without fuel

The fuel crisis in Cuba has been developing over a period, but it intensified significantly after the U.S. aimed to halt Venezuelan oil deliveries to the island in the wake of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s removal on January 3.

It became even more difficult when Trump cautioned other nations that supplying oil to Cuba would result in heavy tariffs. The threat was enough to persuade Mexico, an important oil provider for Cuba, to halt its shipments entirely.

According to a report by The New York Times, the U.S. Coast Guard allowed the sanctioned ship to keep moving toward Cuba, though officials did not say publicly why that call was made.

Analysts said that trying to physically stop a Russian vessel could have led to a dangerous face-off between the U.S. and Russia, particularly at such a delicate moment in international affairs.

The decision came after the U.S. gave a 30-day sanctions waiver earlier in March. This waiver allowed buyers around the world to purchase 19 to 100 million barrels of stranded Russian oil.

The goal was to stabilize the oil supply and prevent prices from rising. Cuba was banned from receiving oil at first, but recent developments suggest a change in approach.

Some analysts warn that such actions could weaken the long-term effectiveness and credibility of the sanctions. This may create uncertainty about energy security and raise concerns about how fairly allied countries share the responsibility of limiting Russian oil profits.

Washington and Moscow are warming up

The tanker, named the Anatoly Kolodkin, was expected to arrive at the port of Matanzas on Monday. The ship’s arrival was described by Cuba’s state media outlet Cubadebate as a direct challenge to what it called a U.S. oil blockade.

The tanker was escorted through the English Channel by the Russian navy, as noted by the outlet.

By allowing Anatoly Kolodkin to dock, Washington is performing a delicate balancing act: maintaining the optics of the 2022 sanctions while ensuring that a sudden supply shock doesn’t send global oil benchmarks climbing.

This is occurring during a time when relations between Washington and Moscow are getting better.

Since Trump returned to the White House, officials from both parties have participated in multiple discussions to mend relations.

A delegation of Russian lawmakers from the State Duma journeyed to Washington last Thursday for discussions with Congress members.

The discussions centered on humanitarian collaboration and the restoration of cultural connections.

According to Representative Anna Paulina Luna, who welcomed the Russian delegation, it is vital for the two greatest nuclear superpowers in the world to maintain open lines of communication.

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