Bitcoin Reclaims $70,000: Does the Three-Day Surge Signal a Bullish Reversal?

TradingKey - Bitcoin prices have risen for three consecutive days but have not broken out of the consolidation range, with bulls and bears evenly matched.

On March 12, Bitcoin ( BTC) price extended its rally, breaking above the $70,000 threshold once again. Over the past three days, Bitcoin has continued to rebound, yet it remains volatile within the $60,000–$74,000 range without a major breakout, which has significantly weakened investor confidence and left the market guessing, making it difficult to judge its future direction.

Bitcoin price chart, Source: TradingView

In the view of Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, the cryptocurrency bear market is not yet over, and there is a possibility of further declines for Bitcoin. McGlone believes that "the current market is in a prolonged macro-driven correction phase, and Bitcoin could fall below $10,000."

So, what level is $10,000? The last time Bitcoin was at $10,000 was in 2020. During the previous bear market (2023), Bitcoin's price only dropped to around $15,000 at its lowest. From this perspective, the likelihood of Bitcoin falling to $10,000 again is low, which has led industry professionals to push back against McGlone's view.

Bitcoin price chart, Source: TradingView

Specifically, Mati Greenspan, CEO of Quantum Economics, criticized the outlook, noting that "analysts often get caught up in short-term macro noise and sometimes extrapolate that noise into foolish conclusions." Greenspan stated, "To get Bitcoin back to $10,000, we would need a global liquidity crisis, a nuclear war, and the internet to go down."

While Mike McGlone's view is extreme, it remains a possibility. After all, the crypto market is a highly unpredictable field where extreme events can occur; every previous bear market has seen developments that exceeded most people's expectations. From an exchange perspective, the collapses of Mt. Gox and FTX are classic examples. In other words, the failure of a major exchange could easily trigger such an extreme crash.

In contrast to Mike McGlone's extreme pessimism, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan is very optimistic, believing Bitcoin's price will reach $1 million, citing its long-term potential and status as a store-of-value asset competing with gold. Hougan also pointed out that when the first gold ETF was launched in the U.S. in 2004, the market size was only $2.5 trillion, whereas today it has reached $40 trillion, a compound annual growth rate of about 13%. If Bitcoin grows at that rate over the next decade, it is expected to achieve that goal.

Based on the experience of previous four-year cycles, the cryptocurrency market often enters a bear market in the third year after a Bitcoin halving. This suggests Bitcoin prices will enter a prolonged period of sluggishness and may consolidate around $30,000 over the next two years to build momentum.