Arthur Hayes plans to wait for Fed liquidity expansion before buying Bitcoin

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, says that current market conditions don’t support buying Bitcoin. Instead, he plans to wait for a change in U.S. monetary policy before reentering the market.

Speaking on the Coin Stories podcast hosted by Natalie Brunell, Hayes explained that liquidity expansion by central banks remains the key catalyst for Bitcoin’s next major rally. “If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into Bitcoin? No. I would wait,” Hayes said during the interview.

Bitcoin recently traded around $69,926, down roughly 45% from the October all-time high price of $126,000. Hayes believes the current macroeconomic environment remains vulnerable to further volatility.

Hayes explains why macro risks could pressure Bitcoin prices

Hayes cited increasing geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran as a cause of greater financial instability in global markets. However, he emphasised that conflict alone does not automatically benefit Bitcoin.

Where is Bitcoin headed next?@CryptoHayes latest takes might surprise you.

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TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Arthur Hayes’ origin story
8:33 Bullish or bearish on Bitcoin
9:59 Institutions taking over Bitcoin?
11:52 Bitcoin price manipulation
13:26 What's holding… pic.twitter.com/Q5w86NdMW8

— Natalie Brunell ⚡️ (@natbrunell) March 10, 2026

Instead, Hayes believes that monetary policy reactions to geopolitical events are the real driver behind the momentum in the crypto market. Military expenditure and fiscal constraints often compel governments to resort to large-scale liquidity expansion.

“The longer this conflict goes on, the higher the likelihood that the Fed has to print money to support the American war machine,” Hayes said. According to his view, Bitcoin performs best when central banks water down the financial system by injecting liquidity.

“Money printing is good for Bitcoin,” Hayes noted. “That’s when I’m going to buy Bitcoin — when the central banks start printing money.”

Hayes often refers to Bitcoin as a “liquidity alarm.” In other words, the cryptocurrency is highly responsive to changes in global money supply. When liquidity is limited, risk assets, such as cryptocurrencies, tend to weaken.

Analysts warn short-term volatility could still push Bitcoin lower

Hayes also warned that downside risks remain. He proposed that Bitcoin may briefly drop below $60,000 if macroeconomic conditions worsen. The cryptocurrency already came close to that level earlier this year, when prices fell to around $60,000 on February 6 before rebounding a little.

According to Hayes, weakness in equity markets could lead to wider risk-off sentiment. In such an environment, investors often reduce their exposure to speculative assets, which can accelerate selling pressure across the crypto sector.

Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick has voiced similar fears. The bank’s global head of digital assets research recently said there was potential for Bitcoin to see a final capitulation towards $50,000 before stabilizing.

Kendrick described the ongoing downturn as more of a macro-driven technology sell-off than a structural breakdown in crypto. Despite the fragile short-term setup, he still expects Bitcoin to bounce back and reach $100,000 by the end of the year.

Long-term forecasts still project major Bitcoin expansion

Despite his cautious near-term outlook, Hayes is extremely optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. He believes that aggressive global liquidity expansion may push the cryptocurrency far beyond its previous highs.

Hayes has suggested that Bitcoin could be worth anywhere up to $500,000 to $750,000 by the end of 2026, provided that central banks dramatically increase the supply of money. Meanwhile, he believes $250,000 is a more conservative figure for the next liquidity cycle.

To be fair, Hayes recently admitted that his predictions occasionally miss the exact timing. A review of about 20 recent market predictions found that only 2 were right and 16 missed their likely timelines. 

Other industry analysts have also maintained bullish projections. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, recently argued that Bitcoin could eventually inch closer to $1 million per coin. Hougan said investors tend to underestimate Bitcoin because they do not consider the size of the global store-of-value market. 

He noted, “I think of bitcoin as an emerging store-of-value asset. It serves a purpose similar to gold—allowing people to hold wealth outside the traditional fiat and banking system—but in a digital form. It is more volatile and less established than gold, but it is increasingly competing for the same market.”

There’s a middle ground between leaving money in the bank and rolling the dice in crypto. Start with this free video on decentralized finance.