Why Goldman Sachs’ $150 Million XRP Bet Fades Amid Growing Retail Weakness

XRP price has remained largely steady in recent sessions, even as reports revealed that Goldman Sachs holds over $150 million in XRP ETF exposure. The disclosure briefly reinforced the narrative that institutional interest in XRP may be strengthening. However, a closer look at ETF flows, on-chain activity, and market participation suggests a more complicated picture.

While a major bank has built a large position, the broader group of investors driving XRP liquidity appears to be showing signs of weakening conviction.

ETF Flows Show Conviction Is Weakening

Institutional participation in XRP ETFs remains smaller than many headlines suggest.

According to regulatory disclosures, 83 institutions reported XRP ETF exposure through 13F filings, with combined holdings worth roughly $211 million. The largest single position belongs to Goldman Sachs, which holds over $150 million across multiple XRP ETF products.

These filings reflect positions as of December 31, 2025, which is the most recent reporting snapshot available. However, the institutional share of XRP ETF capital remains relatively small. The disclosure resurfaced again in March as the XRP price struggled to regain momentum.

At the time of that filing snapshot, XRP ETFs held roughly $1.20 billion in total assets. That means only 16% of ETF capital can be directly linked to institutions required to file 13F disclosures.

The remaining 84% of ETF capital comes from participants that do not appear in those filings. This group includes smaller advisory firms, family offices, retail brokerage investors, and other market participants below the $100 million reporting threshold.

Because these investors make up the majority of ETF capital, they often play a larger role in determining ETF flow direction. Recent flow data shows their enthusiasm slowing sharply.

March is now the first negative month in XRP ETF history (still developing), extending a steady slowdown that began after the strong inflows seen late last year.

Spot Market Indicators Reinforce the Trend

One useful indicator is the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). This metric measures buying and selling pressure by combining price movement with trading volume. When CMF moves above zero, it signals big money accumulation (possibly ETFs), meaning buyers dominate trading activity. When it falls below zero, it indicates distribution, where sellers control volume.

On the XRP/USD Coinbase chart, CMF peaked on January 7. Since then, both the price and CMF have steadily declined. By March 11, CMF has dropped to around –0.10, firmly below the zero line. This aligns with the weak ETF flows tracked earlier. As retail-like investors form 84% of the ETF market, the CMF weakness can be primarily attributed to them.

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This suggests sustained selling pressure rather than accumulation (mostly by the smaller groups). Importantly, the same group of investors that dominates ETF participation, the smaller non-13F participants, also likely trade on spot exchanges as well, meaning the weakening CMF may reflect declining conviction from this broader investor base.

Rising Supply in Loss and Falling DEX Activity Signal Investor Apathy

On-chain data provides additional clues about why participation may be slowing. According to Glassnode, the total XRP supply currently sitting in loss has climbed to about 37.9 billion coins. Supply in loss measures how many tokens were last moved at prices higher than the current market value.

When this metric rises, it means a larger share of investors are holding coins at unrealized losses.

The current reading represents the highest level since July 7, 2024, when supply in loss briefly reached about 39.05 billion XRP.

Large clusters of underwater holders often lead to reduced market activity. Investors who are sitting on losses frequently choose to wait rather than actively trade. Network activity appears to reflect this behavior.

Year-to-date DEX transaction count has fallen to roughly 713,335 transactions, the lowest level recorded so far in 2026.

Decentralized exchanges typically capture activity from self-custody users and crypto-native traders who interact directly with blockchain networks. The decline in DEX activity, therefore, suggests that participation is weakening not only in ETF markets but also in decentralized trading environments.

Together, rising losses and falling transaction activity point toward a broader slowdown in engagement across the XRP ecosystem.

XRP Price Remains Trapped in a Falling Channel

The XRP price structure reflects this cautious sentiment. On the 12-hour chart, XRP has been trading inside a descending parallel channel since February 15, a pattern that typically signals continued selling pressure.

Within this channel, several key price levels define the current market structure. The first major resistance sits near $1.47, which aligns with the upper boundary of the descending channel. A confirmed breakout above that level would signal a structural shift and suggest buyers are regaining control.

Until that happens, downside risks remain dominant.

The most important XRP price support currently sits near $1.22, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.

If the $1.22 level fails, deeper downside targets could emerge near $1.15 and $1.07.

For now, weakening ETF flows, declining money-flow momentum, and falling network activity suggest the market may still be searching for stronger demand before a sustained recovery begins.