Bitcoin Candlestick Structure That Led To Crash To Below $20,000 Last Cycle Just Appeared Again

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing technical warning signs that have caught the attention of market watchers, with one analyst now predicting a dramatic price collapse in the world’s largest cryptocurrency. The analyst noted that a Bitcoin candlestick pattern that previously preceded a devastating crash to below $20,000 has reappeared on the weekly chart, reigniting fears that history may be repeating itself. If it does, it could completely rewrite the narrative of this entire market cycle. 

Historical Setup Signals Bitcoin Potential Crash To $19,000

Market analyst Tony Severino has issued a stark warning to Bitcoin investors and holders, sharing a technical analysis on X that draws a chilling comparison between current price action and a previous cycle crash. The analyst has projected that Bitcoin could decline as low as $19,000 in this bear market. 

The chart shared by Severino places two Bitcoin weekly candlestick patterns side by side, revealing a near-identical structural setup between the current market cycle and a previous bear phase. The left panel shows Bitcoin’s recent trajectory from late 2025 to early 2026, while the right panel displays a historical period that ultimately saw prices collapse below $20,000. 

Severino expressed his surprise at the chart patterns, noting that it was “absolutely wild” how similar the candlestick structures are between the two periods. He added that even the technical indicators are “almost exactly the same.” 

Both chart panels feature a prominent rectangular consolidation zone followed by a pink-highlighted rebound area. The visual symmetry between the two timeframes underpins the analyst’s bearish thesis, suggesting that the current rebound around the pink zone could be short-lived, followed by a potential crash below $19,000 if historical trends repeat. 

Notably, the analyst’s bearish forecast drew skepticism from some members of the crypto community. One member argued that a drop to such levels would not simply represent a routine cycle correction, but the largest retracement in Bitcoin’s history. Severino, however, stood firmly on his analysis and forecast, stating that a 74% correction was entirely possible and even normal within Bitcoin’s historical framework. Not backing down, he insisted again that the market may still have significant downside to navigate before any meaningful bottom is established.  

Update On BTC’s Price Action

The Bitcoin price has recovered again from its previous level, trading back above $70,000. Last week, the cryptocurrency crashed to as low as $63,000 amid significant volatility and shifts in market sentiment.  

However, CoinMarketCap data shows that Bitcoin has gained over 4.8% in the last 24 hours, with its daily trading volume up by more than 23.4%. The sudden price increase has been attributed to sustained inflows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs and easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.