China set the yuan fix at ¥7.0358 per dollar, 301 pips weaker than market estimates

On Friday, the People’s Bank of China announced that it has set the yuan’s daily fix at ¥7.0358 per dollar, which is 301 pips weaker than what traders and analysts had guessed in a Bloomberg survey.

To make matters worse, that difference is the biggest miss since 2018, and Beijing’s decision came right after the offshore yuan dipped below ¥7 per dollar on Thursday for the first time since September 2024.

Naturally, that freaked out a few folks in Beijing who’ve been pushing for a stronger yuan to please trading partners, but not so strong that foreign money floods in like crazy.

On the same day, the National Bureau of Statistics dropped another number: China’s economy in 2024 was worth 134.8 trillion yuan ($19.23 trillion). That’s ¥101.8 billion lower than their earlier figure.

It’s not great timing. Back in July, officials had said the economy would top ¥140 trillion in 2025.

China was forced to react when offshore yuan gained surprising strength

Even though the fix was set weaker than market estimates, it was still higher than the previous day’s fix. At the same time, the offshore yuan is around ¥7.0024 as of press time, showing strength from the past week’s trading sessions.

Meanwhile, analysts from Goldman Sachs and Bank of America are betting that the yuan will push well past ¥7 per dollar in 2026. Inside China, local economists and even ex-central bank officials have started pushing for a stronger currency too.

Their logic is a firmer yuan helps move the economy away from its dependence on exports and eases up on trade fights with other countries.

But China’s central bank doesn’t seem interested in making any fast decisions, as even Wall Street traders have noticed that state-owned banks have been buying dollars here and there to cool things down. That, along with this unexpected fix, looks like an effort to stop speculators from getting too confident.

A research note from China Minsheng Bank said that the yuan could get a bit of support early next year thanks to seasonal foreign exchange flows, and analysts Wen Bin and Li Xin said the central bank’s strategy is clearly set up to keep gains modest.

With the U.S. dollar not falling as quickly, the analysts expect the yuan to stay under ¥6.9 per dollar for now.

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