European Gas: Qatar supply shock lifts TTF – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Molly Schwartz notes that Europe faces renewed energy security risks as Middle Eastern LNG reliability deteriorates following QatarEnergy’s production halt. TTF prices have surged to their highest level since early 2025, and Rabobank’s Energy Strategists warn that a full removal of Qatar from LNG supply could push European gas prices back toward 2022 levels, significantly tightening the regional energy complex.

TTF prices react to Qatar LNG halt

"Europe was hit with the first strike to its energy supply chain after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and had to start diversifying its inflows from elsewhere. Now that Middle Eastern LNG is losing reliability, Europe might have to get involved just to keep the lights on."

"While the EU and UK would probably be more than happy to spectate from the proverbial “monitoring chair,” they may not have a choice. TTF prices reached highs of - €48.95/MWh yesterday—the highest since February of 2025."

"QatarEnergy announced that it has ceased production of LNG and associated products due to the recent escalation. Our Energy Strategists, Florence Schmit and Joe DeLaura, note that we could see prices return to 2022 levels should Qatar be taken out of the LNG equation entirely (easily back to €100/MWh)."

"This puts the entire European energy complex at risk and might be just the incentive needed for Europe to get out of the monitoring chair and into the ring. France24 reports that “France, Germany, UK ready to take ‘defensive action’ against Iran.”"

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)