Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises above $95 amid Middle East war

• Silver trades around $95.40 on Monday, up 1.69% on the day, supported by renewed risk aversion.
• The war in the Middle East boosts flows into precious metals.
• Expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady in March, with potential easing later, help cap real yield pressure.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $95.30 at the time of writing on Monday, rising 1.68% on the day. The white metal extends its bullish move amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty, as investors seek safe-haven assets following the war in the Middle East after coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets.

The military escalation and threats to energy supply routes fuel a cautious tone across global financial markets. The announced closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces intensifies concerns about a prolonged regional conflict, potentially pushing energy prices higher and reigniting inflation expectations. In this environment, precious metals, including Silver, benefit from sustained defensive inflows.

At the same time, the recent release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) revived concerns about persistent inflation. However, markets largely expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at the March meeting. Expectations of monetary easing later in the year, amid signs of a gradual economic slowdown, help contain US real yields, a structurally supportive factor for non-yielding assets such as Silver.

Fears of a stagflationary environment, combining inflationary pressures with weakening growth momentum, further underpin demand for precious metals. If higher Oil prices lift inflation expectations while growth risks increase, the Fed’s room for maneuver could narrow. In this context, Silver retains solid fundamental support, even in the event of temporary US Dollar (USD) strength.

Investors now turn their attention to upcoming US macroeconomic releases, including activity indicators and the employment report, which could influence monetary policy expectations. In the near term, however, Silver (XAG/USD) price action remains primarily driven by geopolitical developments and the intensity of safe-haven demand across global markets.

Silver Technical Analysis

In the 4-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $95.29. The near-term bias stays bullish as price holds well above the rising 50- and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which trend higher and confirm strong upside momentum. The metal also respects an ascending support trend line drawn from $72.34, reinforcing the broader upward structure despite recent volatility. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the high-60s, showing firm bullish momentum without extreme overbought stress, which keeps pullbacks contained within the prevailing uptrend.

Immediate resistance is seen at $96.62, where a recent advance lies, and a break above this area would open the way toward fresh highs beyond the $97.00 region. On the downside, initial support emerges near $94.00, just above the quoted $92.00 horizontal support, before the rising 50-period SMA and the underlying trend line to form a key demand zone. A four-hour close below $92.00 would weaken the bullish outlook and expose deeper retracements toward the mid-$80s, where the longer-term 100-period SMA offers additional structural support.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)