USD/JPY: Lagging recovery with upside risk on catch-up – Scotiabank

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret observe the Japanese Yen (JPY) is trading slightly weaker near the middle of its recent range and has underperformed G10 peers during the broader sentiment recovery. Options markets show a growing premium for protection against Yen strength, suggesting potential upside in a catch-up move. They flag elevated Bank of Japan (BoJ) event risk into the April 28 meeting.

Yen underperformance and BoJ event risk

"The yen is trading with a fractional 0.1% decline and trading in a tight [range] around the mid-point of its range from mid-March."

"The yen’s performance has lagged its G10 peers over the past few weeks, with a notable failure to benefit from the sentiment driven recovery in most other currencies."

"We’ve observed very little movement in risk reversals, however they appear to be repricing a greater premium for protection against JPY strength—offering considerable upside in the event of a ‘catch up trade’."

"BoJ headline risk remains elevated as markets assess the April 28 meeting."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)