CAD: Jobs data and BoC stance guide Loonie – ING
Source Fxstreet
ING’s Francesco Pesole points to Canada’s March labour report as key for Bank of Canada (BoC) expectations, stressing that the unemployment rate matters more than volatile monthly payrolls. With markets pricing about 40bp of tightening by December despite limited BoC appetite for hikes, he sees risks to Canadian Dollar (CAD) front-end rates as dovish and expects USD/CAD to drift toward 1.3700 on continued de‑escalation.
Labour data and rates shape USD/CAD
"Canada releases jobs data for March today. Consensus is for a +15k payroll change after the very soft -83k February print."
"But the bigger signal for the Bank of Canada tends to come from the unemployment rate rather than the quite volatile monthly jobs swings."
"In our view, risks for CAD front-end rates are skewed to the dovish side in the coming weeks."
"Markets are pricing around 40bp of tightening by December, which looks too aggressive considering the BoC has not signalled much appetite for hikes, and attention may soon shift to USMCA renegotiations – a major downside risk for Canada’s activity and jobs."
"USD/CAD remains dominated by war headlines for now, and continued de‑escalation should allow a move to 1.3700."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
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