Canadian Dollar declines despite rising oil prices
- USD/CAD advances as the US Dollar strengthens on safe-haven demand linked to uncertainty surrounding the Middle East peace truce outlook.
- President Trump said Iran’s ceasefire proposal was “not good enough” ahead of his Hormuz Strait deadline.
- WTI gains support as traders stay cautious ahead of Trump’s deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
USD/CAD edges higher after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 1.3930 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground amid increased risk aversion, which could be attributed to the Middle East peace truce uncertainty.
US President Donald Trump said on Monday that the latest proposal for a US ceasefire with Iran is “not good enough" ahead of his deadline for Iran to either reopen the Strait of Hormuz. “It’s not good enough, but it’s a very significant step,” Trump said, adding, “They’re negotiating now, and they’ve made a very significant step. We’ll see what happens.”
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported on Monday that the US Services PMI eased to 54.0 in March from 56.1 in February. The figure came in below expectations of 55.0, signaling a slight loss of momentum in the sector.
However, the upside of the USD/CAD pair could be limited as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) may receive support from the surge in oil prices. It is worth noting that Canada is the largest crude oil exporter to the United States (US).
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price appreciates after little losses in the previous day, trading around $104.30 per barrel at the time of writing. However, crude oil prices gain support as traders remain cautious ahead of President Trump’s deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face major strikes on civilian infrastructure. Meanwhile, Iran warned it would retaliate against any US strikes on civilian infrastructure by intensifying attacks on Gulf energy assets, risking deeper global energy shortages.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Recommended Articles
