USD/CAD climbs as USD strength builds ahead of FOMC Minutes

• USD/CAD rises as broader US Dollar strength weighs on the Loonie.
• Markets scale back December Fed rate-cut bets after BLS cancels October jobs report.
• Traders eye FOMC Minutes and Thursday’s delayed September NFP release.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, with USD/CAD erasing all of Tuesday’s losses as broader Greenback strength weighs on the Loonie. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.4044, up nearly 0.50% on the day, as traders turn cautious ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes.

The Greenback is showing firm momentum, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) climbing to two-week highs near 100.12. The renewed strength comes as markets scale back expectations of another Federal Reserve rate cut in December.

December Fed rate-cut bets have eased after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirmed that the October Employment Situation Report has been cancelled. The US government shutdown prevented them from collecting all the information, especially the data needed to calculate the Unemployment Rate. As a result, the missing October numbers will now be released together with the November jobs report on December 16, which is after the December 9-10 meeting.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are assigning a 31.8% probability of a December rate cut, sharply lower than the 62.9% seen a week ago. Traders now look ahead to the delayed September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due on Thursday, which could reshape market expectations.

The October FOMC Meeting Minutes, due at 19:00 GMT on Wednesday, will be closely watched for clues on last month’s 25 basis-point rate cut, which lowered the target range to 3.75%–4.00%. Traders are looking for clearer guidance after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during the October press conference that a December rate cut is “not a foregone conclusion," a comment that carries more weight now that key labor-market data has been delayed.

In Canada, the soft inflation figures released earlier this week reinforced expectations that the Bank of Canada will keep policy unchanged in the near term. Policymakers cut rates at their last meeting and signalled that the move could mark the end of the easing cycle, provided inflation continues to drift lower.