EUR/USD is flat and outperforming on crosses – Scotiabank

The Euro (EUR) is entering Wednesday’s NA session flat against the US Dollar (USD) as it outperforms all of the G10 currencies in an environment of broad-based USD strength, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

Final CPI cements neutral ECB

"Final euro area CPI figures were released in line with expectations, holding steady at 2.1% y/y (headline) and 2.4% y/y (core). The data offer little to change the outlook for euro area rates, with markets still pricing no material change in the ECB’s policy settings through October 2026."

"Broader developments are thus expected to continue to dominate as market participants assess the post-shutdown resumption of US data releases. Germany/US yield spreads have been climbing within their recent range, offering fundamental support to the EUR, as the market’s attention now turns to the release of preliminary PMI’s scheduled for Friday."

"The EUR’s latest pullback has been modest, and appears to have settled into tight range trading around 1.1580 support/congestion. Technical signals are broadly neutral, and the RSI is hovering just below the neutral threshold at 50. We continue to highlight the recent resistance that was observed around the 50 day MA (1.1652) and look to a near-term range bound between 1.1550 and 1.1650."