When are the China Retail Sales, Industrial Production and how could they affect AUD/USD?
China Retail Sales, Industrial Production Overview
The National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) will publish its data for October at 02.00 GMT. Retail Sales is expected to show an increase of 2.7% year-over-year (YoY) in October, compared to 3.0% in the previous reading. Industrial Production is projected to show a rise of 5.5% YoY in the same period versus 6.5% prior.
Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Meanwhile, Industrial Production shows the volume of production of Chinese Industries such as factories and manufacturing facilities. A surge in output is regarded as inflationary which would prompt the People’s Bank of China would tighten monetary policy and fiscal policy risk.
How could the China Retail Sales, Industrial Production affect AUD/USD?
AUD/USD trades on a negative note on the day in the lead up to the China Retail Sales, Industrial Production data. The pair loses ground as the US government reopened and bets on a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in December remained pretty divided.
If data comes in better than expected, it could lift the Australian Dollar (AUD), with the first upside barrier seen at the October 28 high of 0.6590. The next resistance level emerges at the October 6 high of 0.6620, en route to the September 16 high of 0.6688.
To the downside, the 100-day EMA of 0.6515 will offer some comfort to buyers. Extended losses could see a drop to the November 4 low of 0.6481. The next contention level is located at the August 21 low of 0.6415.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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