USD/JPY: Intervention risks – OCBC

USD/JPY continued to trade higher as expectations of BOJ hike fade. Last at 154.51, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Daily momentum is flat

"Delayed BOJ policy normalisation, risk of heavier fiscal burden amid rise in debt servicing costs, increase in social and defence spending and chance of early snap elections are some factors that have posed downward pressure on JPY."

"JPY approaching 155 has also prompted the standard set of remarks from Finance Minister Katayama. The government is watching for any excessive and disorderly moves with a high sense of urgency. She has used the same remarks over the last 2 weeks. We continue to monitor if verbal intervention steps up intensity under the new Finance Minister or eventually progress towards actual intervention."

"Pair was a touch softer from recent highs, in reaction to jawboning. Daily momentum is flat while RSI shows tentative signs of falling. Resistance at 155, 156.10 levels. Support at 154.40, 153.10 (21 DMA)."