USD/CAD steadies as stronger US Dollar offsets support from rising oil prices

• USD/CAD holds firm below 1.4000 as the Greenback steadies ahead of key US inflation data.
• Canadian retail sales rise 1.0% in August, though September’s early estimate signals slowing momentum.
• Investors eye Friday’s US CPI data for guidance on inflation and the Fed’s rate path ahead of the October 29-30 FOMC meeting.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) steadies against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with USD/CAD advancing modestly after two consecutive days of declines. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.3994, as the Greenback finds mild support while traders weigh mixed Canadian data and volatile Oil prices.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s value against six major peers, eased slightly to around the 99.00 psychological mark, after briefly touching a high of 99.14 earlier in the session. The Dollar is regaining some ground amid cautious market sentiment and a rebound in US Treasury yields following recent weakness, though gains remain limited ahead of key inflation data.

In Canada, Retail sales rose 1.0% MoM in August, led by autos and general merchandise, while sales volumes also increased by 1.0%. However, Statistics Canada’s advance estimate for September points to a 0.7% decline, suggesting that consumer momentum may be losing steam. The mixed data imply that while household spending remains resilient, growth may soften heading into Q4.

Oil prices, a key driver for the commodity-linked Loonie, failed to offer much support. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude extends its rebound for a third straight day, climbing over 3.5% to trade around $61.50 per barrel after falling to near five-month lows earlier this week. Prices were buoyed by supply concerns following Washington’s announcement of new sanctions on Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil on Wednesday, a move that heightened fears of further disruptions to global flows.

In the latest developments, Chinese state Oil majors suspended seaborne Russian Crude purchases, citing increased caution over potential Western sanctions. The move has fueled expectations of tighter market conditions in the near term. Meanwhile, Kuwait’s Oil Minister said he expects oil prices to rise following the US sanctions, noting signs that demand is shifting toward the Gulf and the broader Middle East. He added that OPEC is ready to offset any potential supply shortage by rolling back output cuts if necessary.

In the United States (US), attention remains focused on the upcoming US-China trade talks and the prolonged government shutdown, both weighing on sentiment and adding uncertainty to the growth outlook. With focus now turning to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due on Friday, the data will be watched closely for fresh clues on inflation and its potential impact on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook, as markets already price in a quarter-point rate cut at the October 29-30 FOMC meeting.