The deadline for US "reciprocal tariffs" is approaching  U.S. stock market July earnings season kicks off [The week ahead]

TradingKey - The US stock market continued to rise last week, with all three major indexes recording gains. The S&P 500 rose 1.72%, the Nasdaq rose 1.62%, and the Dow Jones rose 2.3%. This week, the suspension of the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" in the United States ended, the 17th meeting of the leaders of the BRICS countries, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the monetary policy meeting, and China released the June CPI, PPI, and social financing data. In terms of the stock market, this week is still the off-season for financial reports, but some well-known companies have also released their latest results. Delta Airlines (DAL.N), Levi's (LEVI.US) and other companies will release their results.

Preview of major events

The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the monetary policy meeting. Investors may get more monetary policy information

On Thursday (July 10), the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. Last month, the Fed continued to hold its ground, pausing interest rate cuts for four consecutive meetings. The non-farm payrolls data released on Thursday showed the strong resilience of the US job market, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000 in June, higher than the market's general expectation of an increase of 106,000, and the unemployment rate falling from 4.24% to 4.12%.

Interest rate swap data showed that traders believed that the probability of a rate cut at the July 29-30 meeting had dropped to near zero, while the probability of a rate cut in September was about 75%. The market still expects a 50 basis point rate cut this year.

July 9 Tariff Deadline, US-Japan Negotiations at Stalemate

Negotiators from more than a dozen major US trading partners are racing to reach a deal with the Trump administration to avoid higher tariffs before July 9, as Trump and his team continue to exert pressure in recent days.

Trump announced a deal with Vietnam on the 2nd, saying tariffs on many Vietnamese exports would be lower than the previously promised 20%. While the administration has hinted at an imminent deal with India, talks with Japan, the sixth largest US trading partner and one of its closest allies in Asia, appear to be facing obstacles.

China releases June CPI and PPI data

On July 9, China released June CPI and PPI data. Last month's data showed that China's CPI fell 0.1% year-on-year in May. PPI fell 3.3% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month; industrial producer purchase prices fell 3.6% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month. On average from January to May, industrial producer prices and purchase prices both fell 2.6% year-on-year.

Guoxin Securities analyzed that based on the performance of high-frequency price indicators, it is expected that CPI will return to the positive growth range in June, and the month-on-month decline will continue from 0.2% last month, and the year-on-year growth rate of PPI may be the same as last month.

The United Kingdom, South Korea, New Zealand and other countries announced interest rate decisions

On July 9, the Bank of England released the minutes of its financial policy meeting. Last month, the Bank of England announced that it would maintain the policy interest rate at 4.25%, in line with expectations. However, the degree of divergence in the voting results exceeded market expectations, with 6 officials in favor of maintaining interest rates and 3 in favor of a 25 basis point rate cut. The minutes also sent out dovish signals. Traders have fully digested two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2025.

In addition, on Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced its interest rate decision, and on Thursday the Bank of Korea announced its interest rate decision.

Selected Economic Data

On Tuesday：the Reserve Bank of Australia announced its interest rate decision.

On Wednesday：China's June CPI annual rate

On Friday：the UK's May three-month GDP monthly rate

This week's featured events

On Tuesday：US President Trump began sending tariff letters to other countries.

On Thursday：the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting.

On Friday：Daly, a 2027 FOMC voter and president of the San Francisco Fed, gave a speech on the outlook for the US economy.

Company earnings reports

Thursday：Delta Air Lines (DAL.N), Levi Strauss (LEVI.US)