I'm Pretty Confident in These 2 Predictions About Social Security's 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA)

We're about four months away from the official Social Security 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) announcement, but that probably hasn't stopped you from trying to guess what your checks will look like next year. That makes sense, especially if you don't have a lot of personal savings to supplement your checks.

Predictions are already flying around, and now I'm throwing my thoughts out there, too. Here are my two predictions for the 2026 Social Security COLA that I feel pretty strongly about.

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1. It likely won't be larger than the 2025 COLA

The 2025 Social Security COLA came in at 2.5%, making it the smallest COLA since 2021. Based on estimates from The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonpartisan senior group, it looks like the 2026 COLA will land in a similar range. Its latest prediction from May 2025 was a 2.4% COLA, up slightly from the 2.2% and 2.3% it had predicted in previous months.

There's still a small chance this could change, though. COLAs are based on the difference in average third-quarter inflation data from one year to the next. If there's an inflation spike in the coming months, it could push the COLA higher than current estimates.

However, larger COLAs don't necessarily translate into a better quality of life. The extra money will go toward covering the higher cost of goods and services you'll pay on everything.

2. It'll probably disappoint cash-strapped seniors

A 2.4% COLA would raise the average Social Security benefit from $2,002 in May 2025 to $2,050 -- a $48 increase. It's better than nothing, but it probably won't be enough to seriously improve your living situation and may contribute to the program's continued loss of buying power. The average Social Security check today buys 20% less than what the average check bought in 2010, according to TSCL. A 2.4% COLA could exacerbate this issue.

In the near term, the best way for seniors to handle this is to plan to cover their expenses in other ways. This could mean relying more heavily on personal savings or working a part-time job. You may also qualify for government benefits, like Supplemental Security Income (SSI), to help you cover what your Social Security checks won't.

In the long term, COLAs could become more satisfactory, particularly if the government decides to base them on the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E) instead of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) that it uses now to calculate inflation. Using the CPI-E would result in larger COLAs for seniors in most years because this index better reflects the spending habits of seniors. There currently aren't any plans to make this change, but it's an idea legislators have raised in the past and could come up again.

For now, all we can do is take things one step at a time. Once the Social Security Administration announces the official 2026 COLA, it'll be time to start examining your budget for next year to figure out what you'll need to do to make ends meet.

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