Oil Price Forecast: WTI rallies to $74 before settling above $72

Source Fxstreet
  • WTI Oil surges above $72 as Israel-Iran tensions trigger a breakout.
  • Gains for June are near 20%, pushing prices above key Fibonacci levels from longer-term moves.
  • The 12-month moving average provides additional support below $70.

WTI crude oil is surging amid escalating geopolitical tensions, with Israel’s recent strikes on Iran fueling a rally that pushed prices above the $74.00 handle on Friday. At the time of writing, WTI is trading just below $72.00 after Iran responded with its own missile barrage, marking a near 20% gain for June and reversing much of the weakness observed earlier this year.

Despite broad-based pressure in the first half of 2025, the recent price surge has lifted WTI back above several key technical levels, with bullish momentum building across multiple timeframes.

WTI Oil long-term setup

From a longer-term perspective, WTI has reclaimed the 12-month Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently sitting at $69.46. This level now serves as dynamic support. Above, resistance is forming at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the March 2022 high to the April 2025 low, located at $71.71.

WTI Oil Monthly Chart

WTI Oil medium-term setup

On the weekly chart, WTI broke above the 12-week SMA at $63.29 following the Iran-Israel escalation, marking a pivotal shift in sentiment. This surge has brought prices up to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the January–April decline at $74.11. The 12-week SMA continues to offer support near $63.31, underlining a strong base for bulls.

WTI Oil Weekly Chart

WTI Oil short-term setup

Zooming into the daily chart, Friday’s bullish momentum drove a decisive move above both the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, strengthening the case for further upside. Technical confluence with long-term Fibonacci levels adds credibility to the breakout.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily timeframe currently sits at 76, signaling overbought conditions. However, with the geopolitical backdrop intensifying, fundamental support may ultimately prevail over short-term exhaustion.

WTI Oil Daily Chart

Looking ahead: What’s next for Oil?

If WTI breaks and holds above $74.11 early next week, momentum could carry it toward $76.00 and eventually $78.00. Conversely, failure to maintain levels above $71.71 may trigger a retracement, especially if geopolitical tensions ease or if market focus returns to demand-side concerns.


Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Tesla Shares Slide as Musk Warns of Tough Quarters Ahead Amid Weaker DemandTesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares fell more than 5% in U.S. premarket trading on Thursday, after CEO Elon Musk cautioned investors about a potentially challenging period for the electric vehicle giant. The warning comes as the company struggles with softer consumer demand and the looming expiration of key federal tax incentives for EV buyers.
Author  Mitrade
10 hours ago
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares fell more than 5% in U.S. premarket trading on Thursday, after CEO Elon Musk cautioned investors about a potentially challenging period for the electric vehicle giant. The warning comes as the company struggles with softer consumer demand and the looming expiration of key federal tax incentives for EV buyers.
placeholder
Dollar Inches Higher as Traders Await ECB Decision and U.S. Data ReleasesThe U.S. dollar edged higher Thursday but remains at low levels, while the euro slipped ahead of the latest policy-setting meeting from the European Central Bank.
Author  Mitrade
10 hours ago
The U.S. dollar edged higher Thursday but remains at low levels, while the euro slipped ahead of the latest policy-setting meeting from the European Central Bank.
placeholder
Asian Stocks and AUD Rise on Trade and Earnings Boost Stocks across Asia rose on Thursday, with the Australian dollar reaching an eight-month high, buoyed by optimism surrounding corporate earnings and ongoing trade negotiations.
Author  Mitrade
10 hours ago
Stocks across Asia rose on Thursday, with the Australian dollar reaching an eight-month high, buoyed by optimism surrounding corporate earnings and ongoing trade negotiations.
placeholder
Oil Prices Rise on Sharp U.S. Inventory Drop; Trade Deals Take Center StageOil prices edged higher during Thursday’s Asian trading session, supported by data showing a sharp drop in U.S. crude inventories, as investors cautiously awaited developments on trade agreements ahead of Donald Trump’s looming deadline.
Author  Mitrade
11 hours ago
Oil prices edged higher during Thursday’s Asian trading session, supported by data showing a sharp drop in U.S. crude inventories, as investors cautiously awaited developments on trade agreements ahead of Donald Trump’s looming deadline.
placeholder
Bitcoin Edges Higher to $118.5K Amid U.S.–Japan Trade Optimism, but Stays RangeboundBitcoin posted modest gains in Asian trading on Wednesday, rising 0.5% to $118,582.7 as of 02:10 ET (06:10 GMT). The move was supported by improved global risk sentiment following news of a trade breakthrough between the United States and Japan.
Author  Mitrade
Yesterday 09: 00
Bitcoin posted modest gains in Asian trading on Wednesday, rising 0.5% to $118,582.7 as of 02:10 ET (06:10 GMT). The move was supported by improved global risk sentiment following news of a trade breakthrough between the United States and Japan.
goTop
quote