Should You Buy Nvidia Before June 25? Here's What History Says (and It May Surprise You).

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has been one of the stock market's biggest movers and shakers in recent times. This is because the company plays a key role in a technology that has garnered everyone's attention: artificial intelligence (AI). Nvidia's chips power the training of models that set AI into action, and AI could change the world in much the same way the internet did several years ago.

That's why investors have piled into Nvidia stock and have closely tuned in to anything the company's chief executive officer Jensen Huang has said. These comments offer us some visibility on what's ahead for the company -- and even the entire industry. So, it's not surprising that, often, after an Nvidia event, the stock will react.

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As we look at the calendar, it tells us that one such event is right around the corner. On June 25, Nvidia holds its annual meeting of stockholders. Should you buy the stock before then? History has something to say -- and it may surprise you.

Image source: Getty Images.

Nvidia's big moment

Before we get started, let's talk about Nvidia's most recent big moment, and that was the company's first-quarter earnings report on May 28.

Nvidia wowed investors once again, as revenue soared 69% to more than $44 billion, surpassing analysts' estimates -- and importantly, the company spoke of ongoing strong demand for its new Blackwell architecture. The platform was designed specifically with inferencing in mind, a smart move considering that is the area of focus for many AI customers. Inferencing is the "thinking" process that results in AI coming up with answers to complex questions, and this requires significant power.

"We're off to the races," Huang said during the earnings call, signaling much more growth lies ahead.

Nvidia stock climbed in the post-earnings trading session, and though it fluctuated on certain trading days, it delivered a gain of about 6% in the two weeks following the report.

Now, let's consider the upcoming shareholders' meeting. The company recently released the agenda, which includes items of business such as the election of directors nominated by the board of directors, advisory approval of executive compensation, and several other matters. These don't stand out as elements that will push the stock higher or lower, though any comments from Huang about the company's prospects could act as a catalyst.

A look back in time

What does history show us about Nvidia's stock performance after a shareholders' meeting? As the chart shows, the stock fell in the days following last year's meeting, then went on to rebound in the weeks to follow.

NVDA data by YCharts

Nvidia followed a similar pattern in 2023. And in 2022, the stock also fell following the meeting, but didn't go on to recover so quickly -- in fact, Nvidia delivered a double-digit loss from that point through the end of the year.

So it might seem surprising that, in spite of Nvidia's earnings and general message being positive over the past few years, the stock actually fell after each shareholder meeting. It's important to keep in mind, though, that this likely isn't a result of anything said or decided at the annual event. At this point in Nvidia's growth story, investors react to new or extremely strong messages from Huang -- but they may not reward the stock with gains after a "routine" sort of event such as a shareholder meeting.

Now let's get back to our question: Should you buy Nvidia before June 25? History tells us there's no need to rush into the stock on anticipation of phenomenal gains following the shareholder meeting. But this doesn't mean Nvidia isn't a buy.

The company has built a market-leading position and should maintain this thanks to its commitment to innovation. That makes Nvidia stock a fantastic addition to any AI portfolio, but you don't have to rush into it -- whether you buy Nvidia now or after the meeting, you have a great chance of winning over the long haul.

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Adria Cimino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.