How AMD Stock Beat the Market (and Nvidia) in 2025
Key Points
AMD stock rose 77.3% in 2025, nearly doubling the S&P 500's return and outpacing Nvidia in the last three months.
OpenAI signed a multi-year deal to buy 6 gigawatts of AMD Instinct AI accelerators, representing a $120 billion revenue opportunity over the next 5 years.
The deal signals that AMD can compete with Nvidia for high-end AI workloads.
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Shares of AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) rose 77.3% in 2025, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. In the same period, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) market index gained 16.4% and AMD rival Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) jumped 38.9% higher.
AMD's price chart stayed close to Nvidia's (and far above the broader market's) through the first 9 months of last year, indicating continued investor interest in the artificial intelligence (AI) boom that started in November of 2022. But AMD took a solid year-to-date lead in October as a key AI player committed to buying a lot of AMD's Instinct chips over the next few years.
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A $120 billion handshake with OpenAI
On Oct. 6, ChatGPT developer OpenAI unveiled a multi-year contract that will put 6 gigawatts of AMD Instinct AI accelerators in OpenAI's data centers over the next five years. The deal could also make OpenAI a major owner of AMD stock, as it includes stock warrants for up to 160 million AMD shares that will vest (convert into common shares) as AMD delivers its gigawatts of number-crunching hardware. That would be approximately 10% of AMD's stock.
The shipments will start in the second half of 2026 and ramp up to larger volumes and next-generation Instinct chips in 2027. AMD CEO Lisa Su called the agreement "a true win-win," and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman highlighted AMD's high-performance products.
AMD's stock skyrocketed 26% that fine Monday, rising 41% in one week. OpenAI's hardware deals have market-moving power.
Image source: Advanced Micro Devices.
Why OpenAI's vote of confidence is a big deal
There are a few important quirks in AMD's OpenAI deal.
One AMD Instinct card draws roughly 1,000 watts of power. Thus, 6 gigawatts' worth of these AI accelerators should involve approximately 6 million processors. The current generation of Instinct MI350 cards is priced in the neighborhood of $20,000 per card, and the improved MI 450 series that OpenAI is buying (and later generations in a 5-year deal) may carry a higher price. So AMD's revenue opportunity works out to $120 billion or more. Again, it's over 5 years but still a significant growth driver.
The OpenAI deal was an eye-opener for investors, as well as for potential customers. If OpenAI thinks AMD chips are worth a huge multi-year commitment, other hyperscalers should give the Instinct series a whirl, too.
I must note that OpenAI isn't going all-in on AMD accelerators. The ChatGPT maker inked an even larger chip-supply contract with Nvidia two weeks before the AMD Instinct announcement. However, that deal hardly moved Nvidia's stock, as Wall Street had largely expected such an announcement.
AMD's OpenAI partnership matters because it proves that AMD can compete with Nvidia where it matters the most. If you were waiting for a big AI win before investing in AMD stock, OpenAI just gave you 6 gigawatts of reasons to make that move.
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Anders Bylund has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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