Should You Buy XRP Before November?

Key Points

• XRP’s price has soared more than fivefold over the past year.

• The conclusion of the SEC lawsuit and hopes for ETF approvals are fueling that rally.

• Ripple’s upcoming Swell event in November could drive its price even higher.

• 10 stocks we like better than XRP ›

As of September 17, XRP's (CRYPTO: XRP) price skyrocketed nearly 420% over the past 12 months. During that same period, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and Ether (CRYPTO: ETH) rose about 90%. XRP outperformed those blue-chip cryptocurrencies as it overcame its regulatory challenges, attracted more attention from exchange-traded fund (ETF) providers, and gained more momentum as a bridge currency for cross-border transfers.

Yet XRP still remains about 20% below its all-time high of $3.84 in January 2018. Let's see why it might head even higher before a few fresh catalysts emerge in November.

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A brief history of XRP

XRP is the native cryptocurrency of the XRP Ledger, a blockchain platform created by the founders of the fintech company Ripple Labs in 2012. Ripple promoted its blockchain-based money transfers as a faster, cheaper, and more secure alternative to traditional SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) transfers.

XRP's entire supply of 100 billion tokens was minted prior to its launch. It's a deflationary token because a tiny XRP fee (known as a "drop") is burned off with every transaction.

XRP's price rose as Ripple's business grew. But to fund its expansion, Ripple sold a lot of its own XRP tokens. That unusual capital-raising strategy sparked a lawsuit from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which accused it of selling unlicensed securities, in 2020.

The SEC lawsuit caused Ripple to lose some of its top customers, and XRP was delisted from the major crypto exchanges. That's why its price dropped as low as $0.31 per token in 2022. The interest rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 exacerbated that pressure by chilling the broader crypto market.

Why did XRP bounce back?

The biggest catalyst for XRP was the conclusion of the SEC's lawsuit against Ripple. In 2023, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that XRP tokens sold on public exchanges were not securities, but the tokens sold to institutional investors should be classified as securities.

Ripple was then fined $125 million -- which was much lower than the SEC's demand for $2 billion -- and an injunction blocked it from selling any more XRP tokens to institutional investors. The lawsuit concluded this August after both sides accepted the ruling and dropped their respective appeals.

As the SEC backed off, the top crypto exchanges relisted XRP. Several crypto firms submitted their applications for spot price XRP ETFs, and one unique ETF -- the REX-Osprey XRP ETF -- was recently cleared to start trading without the SEC's explicit approval. That ETF actually holds a mix of cash, T-bills, and derivatives along with some XRP tokens, so it was allowed to start trading as a diversified ETF instead of a spot price play. All of those tailwinds, along with lower interest rates, sparked XRP's rally over the past year.

Why could XRP be worth buying before November?

XRP had a great run over the past 12 months, but two catalysts could drive its price even higher in November.

First, Ripple will hold its flagship Swell event on Nov. 4 and 5 in New York -- and it could impress the bulls with some major announcements for XRP. Any updates regarding its development of sidechains -- which are crucial for adding support for Ethereum-based smart contracts to the XRP Ledger -- should attract a lot of attention. Smart contracts are essential for developing decentralized apps (dApps) and other crypto assets, but XRP only natively supports lightweight "hooks," which are used to develop simpler programs.

Ripple also applied for a national bank charter this July. That application faces some opposition from industry groups, but any progress toward an approval could boost XRP's price. As a bank, more of Ripple's customers could use XRP and its own Ripple USD (CRYPTO: RLUSD) stablecoin as bridge currencies for transfers between two volatile assets.

Second, the SEC is expected to either approve or reject the applications for XRP's spot price ETFs throughout October and November. Those eagerly anticipated approvals could firmly stabilize XRP's price while drawing in more retail and institutional investors.

XRP will likely remain more volatile than Bitcoin or Ether for the foreseeable future, but it might also have a lot more upside potential than those maturing cryptocurrencies. Therefore, investors who nibble on XRP before November could reap some bigger gains by the end of the year.

Should you invest $1,000 in XRP right now?

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Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.