Where Will Tesla Stock Be in 1 Year?

Key Points

• Tesla's core auto business is under pressure even as energy storage margins improve.

• A paid Robotaxi pilot in Austin introduces massive upside -- and execution risk.

• At today's price, the stock is a speculative bet that autonomy scales quickly.

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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is having a volatile year as investors toggle between weak vehicle demand and rising hopes for autonomy. The electric-vehicle pioneer also sells energy storage systems and runs a global charging network, but the story dominating the stock is Tesla's push to commercialize self-driving. Indeed, shares trade around $420 as of this writing, following a sharp rebound in recent sessions that was fueled by renewed optimism around Robotaxis and AI.

The next 12 months won't be decided by a neat model or a single datapoint. If an autonomous ride-sharing network takes hold, it could spark a wave of new orders and a higher-margin services business layered on top of the installed base, justifying Wall Street's recent optimism for the stock. If it doesn't, investors are left with a cyclical auto company investing heavily in ambitious and costly projects. Therefore, the honest answer to "Where will Tesla be in a year?" is that the range of outcomes is unusually wide.

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Image source: Getty Images.

Recent results show mixed momentum

Results through June highlight the push-and-pull across Tesla's businesses. In the second quarter of 2025, total revenue fell 12% year over year to $22.5 billion as automotive sales cooled, even as energy storage remained a bright spot.

Margins tell a similar story. Tesla's combined gross margin for its automotive and "services and other" segments fell to 15.4% from 17.1% a year ago, reflecting lower prices and less regulatory credit revenue, while energy generation and storage gross margin rose meaningfully to 30.3% from 24.6% on lower unit costs. Operating lines continue to absorb stepped-up spending. Research and development expenses rose sharply as management invests in artificial intelligence (AI), autonomy, and an expanded product roadmap, with research and development expenses reaching about 7% of revenue in the quarter versus roughly 4% a year ago.

Helping balance this high spending, liquidity remains a strength. Tesla ended the quarter with $36.8 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and investments, supported by $4.7 billion of operating cash flow in the first half of 2025. This robust balance sheet gives the company room to invest even when demand is weak.

A wildcard

The swing factor is autonomy. In Tesla's second-quarter 10-Q, management notes, "the launch of our Robotaxi service in June 2025 will unlock significant business growth to advance a service-driven business model." Additionally, Tesla says it is building the supporting infrastructure as it scales. A paid pilot program is already running in Austin, and Tesla has publicly framed its upcoming "Cybercab" as the purpose-built vehicle for future fleet expansion. Execution here could be transformative -- both by creating a high-margin network service and by pulling through new vehicle demand from customers who want cars that can earn money while they sleep.

But there are material risks over the next 12 months. First, autonomy depends on software progress and regulatory approvals; timelines have slipped before across the industry, and rivals like Alphabet's Waymo and Amazon's Zoox are also pushing forward, adding competitive pressure and shaping public perception. Second, Tesla's core auto profitability is under strain, so heavy investment in autonomy, new vehicle programs, and humanoid robotics could keep near-term margins soft if demand does not reaccelerate. Notably, deferred revenue tied primarily to Full Self-Driving features rose to $3.75 billion at quarter-end -- a reminder that a portion of the value investors expect still sits in obligations to deliver future capability.

Valuation magnifies the uncertainty. On trailing revenue of roughly $93 billion, the company's market value implies a rich price-to-sales multiple (about 15) for a manufacturer with compressing auto margins -- unless autonomy inflects. If Robotaxi usage expands beyond a limited pilot, Tesla could look more like a networked platform with high incremental margins on software and rides, and the current price may prove reasonable. If Robotaxi traction stalls, investors may reassess how much to pay for a slower-growing auto and energy business -- even with solid cash and a growing energy storage segment.

Stepping back, the most useful way to frame the next year is as a spectrum. At the high end, a scaled autonomous network plus stronger vehicle orders could send earnings and the stock sharply higher. In the middle, modest autonomy progress and a return to moderate growth in vehicle sales could keep shares range-bound as profits recover gradually. At the low end, limited autonomy progress and lingering weak demand could leave margins thin and the stock vulnerable. That is precisely why Tesla remains a speculative bet best suited for investors with large risk appetites: the upside is massive if autonomy works -- and the downside is meaningful if it does not.

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Daniel Sparks and/or his clients have positions in Tesla. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.