Where Will IonQ Be in 10 Years?

Key Points

• It's taking a distinct approach to quantum computing vs. its peers.

• IonQ predicts an $87 billion market opportunity by 2035.

• The stock is a high-risk, high-reward investment.

• 10 stocks we like better than IonQ ›

Predicting where a company will be a decade from now is no easy task. Few could have imagined the ride that Nvidia has taken its shareholders on, as it has risen from a $12 billion company to become the world's largest, currently valued at more than $4.1 trillion.

Ironically, IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) has a $12 billion market capitalization right now and is investing in high-powered computing that could have massive implications for the business world. So, where will this quantum computing start-up be a decade from now? Let's find out.

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IonQ's approach differs from the competition

Quantum computing is an exciting technology that could allow more accurate computations of problems that don't have a singular answer. One area where quantum computing could thrive is logistics network planning. There are numerous ways a delivery route could be planned, but it's hard to calculate all of those possibilities simultaneously to determine the best outcome.

Quantum computing doesn't process information in bits (only a zero or a one). It can handle these calculations better because it uses qubits, which are better described as the probability of an answer being a zero or a one. This makes quantum computing an ideal technology forresearching drug discovery, training AI models, predicting weather patterns, or logistics. However, quantum computing is still working toward proving its relevance.

The biggest issue in quantum computing right now is calculation accuracy; because qubits don't provide an exact zero or one answer, errors can occur in the calculation. The company that can provide the market with the most accurate computer first will likely be a huge success, which is why IonQ is one of my top picks for quantum computing.

Most quantum computing competitors are using a superconducting approach to perform quantum calculations. IonQ is utilizing a trapped-ion approach, which offers several advantages with a minor trade-off. The trapped-ion approach offers superior accuracy compared to superconducting methods and can be performed at room temperature, rather than near absolute zero, which reduces costs.

On the downside, the gate processing speed for trapped-ion computers is slower than that of superconducting computers. I believe the market will value cost and accuracy over pure speed, which leads me to think that IonQ could be a significant winner by capturing a substantial market share first.

If IonQ can bring a commercially viable product to the market first, it will be a massive winner in a huge market. But just how big is this market? IonQ estimates it to be about $87 billion by 2035.

Massive upside if IonQ can capture a chunk of the market

It's unlikely that IonQ will be able to capture the entire $87 billion market, but if it's first to market, it could capture a significant share. For reference, Nvidia has about a 90% market share in the data center GPU space.

If IonQ could capture a similar chunk of the market, it would be a massive success, easily growing into a company worth hundreds of billions of dollars. However, that's not a sure thing.

The trapped-ion approach may have a limitation that prevents it from being commercially viable, which hasn't been discovered yet. Another possibility is that the market values speed over accuracy and cost, making products from its competitors more attractive.

So, just as easily as IonQ could increase an investment by tenfold, it could go bankrupt. There's nothing wrong with investing in high-risk, high-reward stocks like this, as long as position size is kept relatively small to manage risk. By devoting no more than 1% of their overall portfolio value to IonQ, investors can be protected from downside risk while also potentially benefiting significantly if the stock becomes the next Nvidia.

IonQ is a promising investment in quantum computing, but we're still a long way away from knowing what the company will look like a decade from now, if it even exists at all.

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Keithen Drury has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.