Could Bitcoin Deliver 10x Returns?

Key Points

• Many investors are now expecting Bitcoin to hit a price of $1 million within the next few years.

• For Bitcoin to hit $1 million by the end of 2028, it would need to deliver triple-digit annualized returns.

• While Bitcoin is still an explosive, high-upside cryptocurrency, it could take a decade or longer to deliver 10x returns to investors.

• 10 stocks we like better than Bitcoin ›

For the year, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is still up 20%. That's the good news. The bad news is that Bitcoin has dropped back down to the $111,000 price level in August. As of August 28, it is down 5% over the past 30 days.

Quite simply, this wasn't supposed to happen. At the beginning of the year, many analysts expected Bitcoin to double in value to hit $200,000 by the end of 2025. From there, Bitcoin would be on pace to deliver 10x returns to investors, eventually hitting a price of $1 million by the end of 2030.

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Bitcoin's historical track record

Bitcoin needs to deliver blistering returns, year in and year out, in order to hit the $1 million price point sometime in the near future. Fortunately, that's something that it has been able to do with stunning regularity over the past decade.

For example, Bitcoin first hit a price of $100 in April 2013. Just seven months later, it was trading at $1,000. By 2017, Bitcoin was trading above $10,000. Then, in 2024, Bitcoin broke through the $100,000 mark.

Image source: Getty Images.

See the pattern here? Bitcoin has been growing exponentially over the past decade. Every few years, it has been able to deliver 10x returns to investors. And that's exactly why so many investors are now predicting that Bitcoin will eventually hit a target of $1 million. If Bitcoin is still able to deliver 10x returns in a fairly short period, that makes $1 million the next logical price target.

Does the math work?

If Bitcoin ends the year at the $111,000 price level, the math behind the $1 million price target becomes difficult, but not impossible. Bitcoin would need to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 108% in order to hit a price of $1 million within a three-year time frame. In short, it needs to more than double in value every single year.

That's a highly aggressive growth rate for most assets, but not necessarily for Bitcoin, which has a long track record of delivering triple-digit returns to investors. Last year, for example, Bitcoin delivered returns of 125%, making it the top-performing asset in the world.

If we extend the time period to hit $1 million to five years, then Bitcoin would still need to deliver annualized returns of 55%. Even if we extend the time period to 10 years, Bitcoin would still need to deliver annualized returns of 25%. That's why it was crucial for Bitcoin to reach $200,000 this year. That mile marker would put Bitcoin on the right glide path to $1 million.

Thus, watching Bitcoin stall out in August is a bit like watching your favorite baseball team fall out of contention throughout the final month of the summer. Yes, the team might be able to mount a ferocious comeback in September and still make the playoffs, but mathematically, they are all but eliminated.

A new timeline for Bitcoin to hit $1 million?

Fortunately, many factors seem to be in Bitcoin's favor right now. Money is still flowing into the spot Bitcoin ETFs. Institutional investors are boosting their allocations to Bitcoin. The White House has adopted a pro-crypto, pro-Bitcoin stance. The U.S. Congress is passing crypto-friendly legislation. And Bitcoin Treasury Companies are hoarding Bitcoin at a prodigious pace.

So perhaps Bitcoin's August pullback is nothing to worry about. Historically, Bitcoin has delivered weak performance in August and September of many years, before soaring at the end of the year. Bitcoin is a very volatile asset, prone to wild price swings. So maybe this is just a temporary market consolidation, before Bitcoin pushes higher.

If history is any guide, Bitcoin is still capable of delivering 10x returns to investors. It's still one of the best cryptocurrency investments you can make right now.

Many crypto investors are still expecting a massive year-end rally. But if Bitcoin fails to deliver that surge, it might be time to push out the expected timeline for Bitcoin to hit the magic price of $1 million. Instead of reaching that price by 2030, it might take a decade or longer.

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Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.