Intuitive Machines (LUNR) Sales Up 21%

Key Points

• Revenue (GAAP) of $50.3 million for Q2 2025 missed analyst estimates by 25.7% but increased 21% compared to Q2 2024.

• Backlog declined 22% to $256.9 million compared to December 31, 2024 as contracts were delivered, highlighting ongoing revenue visibility challenges.

• Cash balance (GAAP) rose to $344.9 million, strengthening liquidity while the company remains debt-free.

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Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR), a space technology company specializing in lunar landers and in-space infrastructure, released its Q2 2025 results on August 7, 2025. The company reported revenue (GAAP) of $50.3 million, up 21% compared to Q2 2024, but notably short of the GAAP consensus estimate of $67.7 million. The quarter saw continued negative adjusted EBITDA with no progress toward profitability. Backlog fell to $256.9 million, a 22% decline compared to December 31, 2024, as contracts were fulfilled and new awards lagged. Cash reserves (GAAP) increased to $344.9 million. Overall, the quarter showed operational developments and strategic actions but also underscored ongoing challenges in revenue growth, contract pipeline, and profitability relative to expectations.

Source: Analyst estimates provided by FactSet. Management expectations based on management's guidance, as provided in Q1 2025 earnings report.

Business Overview and Strategic Focus

Intuitive Machines is a Houston-based company providing lunar landers and in-space services. It is recognized for developing technically advanced landers, like the Nova-C and Nova-D, used for lunar surface deliveries. The business targets the cislunar economy—commercial activity between Earth and the Moon—by offering services that range from delivery of scientific payloads to data transmission and infrastructure support.

The company's success relies on expanding its technological capabilities, strengthening strategic partnerships, and winning sizable government contracts, particularly from NASA and national security agencies. It focuses on operational efficiency and market positioning, aiming to transition from project-based income—such as milestone lunar deliveries—towards more stable, recurring revenue streams from infrastructure and data services.

Quarterly Highlights: Growth, Partnerships, and Challenges

Intuitive Machines reported GAAP revenue below analyst expectations, partially offset by its strategic decision to align satellite delivery with Mission 3. The revenue figure, while higher than last year, fell $17.4 million short of analyst projections on a GAAP basis. Management cited the impact of its strategic decision to align satellite delivery with Mission 3. Adjusted EBITDA remained negative, showing little year-over-year improvement compared to Q2 2024, highlighting ongoing challenges in achieving sustained profitability.

The company's backlog, which measures the total value of contracted but not yet completed work, decreased mainly as a result of fulfilling existing contracts and the close-out of the IM-2 lunar mission, partially offset by $49.8 million in new awards, including a $9.8 million contract for an Orbital Transfer Vehicle and a $10 million award from the Texas Space Commission for its Earth Reentry Program.

During the quarter, Intuitive Machines advanced several strategic efforts. It signed a purchase agreement to acquire KinetX, a provider of space navigation and flight dynamics software, aiming to strengthen its position in Earth orbit and lunar mission management. The company also expanded its production footprint at the Houston Spaceport by 140,000 square feet, bringing satellite manufacturing in-house to improve schedule control and system integration. Successful completion of two lunar landings, using Nova-C lander vehicles, highlighted progress in core technologies.

Partnerships continued to play a key role. The company collaborated with Space Forge on semiconductor manufacturing in space and with Rhodium Scientific on biopharma testing in microgravity. These projects support the company's infrastructure-as-a-service efforts and signal an ongoing move into higher-value recurring service markets. Free cash flow (non-GAAP) for the first half of FY2025 improved to negative $14.0 million, compared to negative $41.5 million a year ago, reflecting better operational discipline. However, free cash flow remains negative and subject to contract timing and milestone-based payments, as is common in the government space sector.

Looking Forward: Guidance and Strategic Priorities

For the remainder of fiscal 2025, management projects that revenue will be near the low end of its prior full-year 2025 outlook, with the potential to reach the previous mid-point guidance of $275 million in revenue if additional contract opportunities materialize late in the year. To meet this goal, the company will need sequential acceleration in the second half, as it has recognized $112.8 million in GAAP revenue in the first half. Management continues to expect positive adjusted EBITDA in FY2026 but did not provide updated or more granular guidance for profitability in the current year; the most recent guidance continues to expect positive adjusted EBITDA in 2026.

Intuitive Machines' future growth will depend on its ability to secure new awards and replenish backlog, successfully execute planned missions like IM-3, scheduled for the first half of 2026, and continue transitioning into recurring service-based business lines. With its robust cash position and no debt, the company remains positioned to invest in strategic M&A and facility expansions. Investors should monitor contract award flow, the pace of market development for cislunar data services, and fixed cost management in upcoming quarters.

Revenue and net income presented using U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) unless otherwise noted.

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