HUF: The shine is fading – ING

The National Bank of Hungary, as expected, left rates at 6.50%. Forward guidance remained hawkish and changed only in details. The central bank added FX stability to its stance as one of the ways to achieve lower inflation, probably as some pressure against the government's communication in recent weeks, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

Current EUR/HUF levels around 389-390 seem fair at the moment

"Our view here remains the same – rates unchanged until the end of the first half of the year. Of course, there are some dovish risks, such as lower inflation in the first quarter or rate cuts by other central banks. However, we expect the NBH to look past these."

"Rates and FX remained largely unchanged yesterday, underscoring the central bank’s predictability at this stage and reflecting minimal progress. At the same time, we saw some downplaying of a possible meeting between Trump and Putin in Budapest."

"This reduces the chances of a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia and the attractiveness of the HUF, which, in our opinion would benefit the most within the CEE region. Current EUR/HUF levels around 389-390 seem fair at the moment, and we will have to wait for a new impulse here."