Trump's Health Concerns: How Should Investors Respond if the Rumours Are True?

TradingKey - On 2 September 2025, rumours of Donald Trump’s poor health—alleging a stroke and hospitalisation for aphasia—spread rapidly. However, Trump quickly refuted these claims, labelling reports about his health as "fake news." From a financial market perspective, if Trump's health does indeed develop issues, U.S. stocks will likely come under pressure, while the euro against the U.S. dollar may rise. For investment strategies, investors should closely monitor the S&P 500 (Mitrade: SPX500) support level at 6,360. A breach of this level due to Trump’s health concerns could signal further declines in U.S. stocks. Meanwhile, in the forex market, focus on the EUR/USD (Mitrade: EUR/USD) resistance level at 1.173; a breakout above this point could sustain upward momentum for the currency pair.

It’s important to note that, from a broader U.S.-European economic perspective, the Federal Reserve’s near-certain resumption of rate cuts in September, combined with the resilience of the U.S. economy, poses upside risks for U.S. stock market bears. Meanwhile, the Eurozone’s economic weakness, coupled with the European Central Bank’s ongoing rate cuts, creates downside risks for EUR/USD bulls. As such, investors should weigh multiple factors in their trading strategies, rather than focusing solely on the validity of Trump’s health concerns.

Main Body

On 2 September 2025, rumours surfaced about Donald Trump's deteriorating health, alleging a stroke and hospitalisation for aphasia, sparking widespread international debate. Financial markets reacted swiftly, with U.S. stocks plummeting at the opening, seemingly pricing in the uncertainty of this crisis. However, Trump responded from the White House, asserting that he was "highly active" over the Labour Day weekend, visiting his Virginia golf course daily, and dismissing health-related reports as "fake news." As of now, the specifics of Trump's health remain unclear. If these health concerns are substantiated, how can investors navigate the resulting market volatility to achieve profits?

In the short term, if Trump's health issues prevent him from fulfilling his presidential duties, U.S. policy uncertainty could surge. This would likely weigh on U.S. equities and the dollar index, while potentially boosting the EUR/USD exchange rate. For investment strategies, investors should closely monitor the S&P 500 (Mitrade: SPX500) support level at 6,360. A confirmed health crisis could drive the index below this threshold, signalling further downward momentum (Figure 1). In the forex market, attention should focus on the EUR/USD (Mitrade: EUR/USD) resistance level at 1.173; a breakout above this level could sustain the currency pair’s upward trend (Figure 2).

Figure 1: S&P 500 Index (Mitrade: SPX500) 4-Hour Candlestick Chart

Source: Mitrade

Figure 2: The euro against the dollar (Mitrade: EUR/USD) 4-Hour Candlestick Chart

Source: Mitrade

The long-term impact of Trump’s health issues on U.S. financial markets remains unclear. The policy stance of the vice president or other potential successors will be a critical factor. If the successor adopts less aggressive tariff policies than Trump, it could benefit U.S. equities and the dollar index; conversely, a continuation of stringent policies may exert downward pressure.

Notably, even if rumours about Trump’s health prove true, their short-term impact on financial markets will intertwine with broader U.S. and European economic and policy dynamics affecting equities and forex markets. With U.S. inflation remaining manageable, the Federal Reserve is almost certain to resume its rate-cutting cycle in September. Despite signs of weakness in the U.S. labour market, the overall economy continues to show resilience, posing upside risks for U.S. stock market bears. Meanwhile, the Eurozone’s economic weakness, combined with the European Central Bank’s ongoing rate cuts, creates downside risks for EUR/USD bulls. Therefore, investors should consider a range of factors in their trading decisions, rather than focusing solely on the veracity of Trump’s health concerns.

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