Indexes break records while earnings chatter grows louder

Stocks kept pushing higher Sunday night as traders and investors ended June with risk still very much on the table. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both rose by 0.1%, while Dow futures climbed 130 points, or 0.3%, according to data from CNBC.

The market is now grinding toward the end of a strong month, even with global trade threats still lingering under Donald Trump’s second term. Traders are reacting fast to every development, but so far, the worst of Trump’s tariff moves haven’t hit, and that’s kept money flowing into stocks.

The gains come after weeks of volatile headlines out of Washington and Beijing, with investors watching every trade comment. For now, the fear that tariff threats might become full-blown policies hasn’t played out. That relief helped the S&P 500 rally 4.4% in June.

The Nasdaq, stacked with tech names, is up almost 6.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added around 3.7%. This rally has been fast and loud. Just two months ago in April, the S&P 500 was nearly 18% underwater for the year. Now it’s closing out the month with a fresh four-month high, finishing Friday’s session 0.5% higher at 6,173.07, overtaking the previous record of 6,147.43.

Indexes break records while earnings chatter grows louder

The Nasdaq Composite ended Friday at an all-time high too, rising 0.5% by the close. The Dow finished the week nearly 1% higher. The move wasn’t just driven by lower fear around trade. Company earnings are starting to guide the conversation again.

John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet, said more S&P 500 companies are giving optimistic guidance than usual. Of the 110 companies that have issued EPS guidance so far for the second quarter, 51 issued upbeat projections. That’s better than the five-year average of 42 and the 10-year average of 39. Still, it’s not all sunshine. 59 companies gave negative EPS guidance.

Even though some companies are hopeful, the actual growth rate for Q2 is expected to be slower. John said the estimated year-over-year earnings growth is around 5%, which would be the weakest since the final quarter of 2023. That contrast between good vibes and slowing numbers is exactly what’s keeping traders from going all-in. Everyone’s bullish, but no one wants to be caught holding the bag.

Europe runs ahead of Wall Street while Asia follows cautiously

Across the Atlantic, European markets outperformed their US peers in the first half of 2025. The Stoxx 600, covering broad European stocks, is up 7% year-to-date. Germany’s DAX has soared 20%, Italy’s FTSE MIB is up 16%, and Spain’s IBEX 35 has also climbed 20%.

Even the UK’s FTSE 100, usually more sluggish, is up 7.7%. But the rally is making analysts nervous. Some are unsure if Europe can keep up the momentum, especially with the eurozone’s own political mess brewing.

Asian markets opened higher Monday as investors worked through industrial production numbers from Japan and South Korea, plus manufacturing activity from China. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 1.13% in early trading. The Topix index also rose 0.77%.

Over in Seoul, the Kospi added 0.63%, while the smaller-cap Kosdaq went flat. Australia’s ASX 200 opened 0.3% higher. In Hong Kong, futures for the Hang Seng Index pointed to a weak open, standing at 24,182. That’s below Friday’s close of 24,284.15.

Away from stocks, gold stayed soft. It dropped after two straight weeks of losses, with risk appetite taking over. Investors are waiting for Trump’s administration to finalize multiple trade deals before the July 9 deadline. That risk-on mood is cutting into demand for safe-haven assets.

Early Monday, bullion dropped as much as 0.8%, before recovering some of those losses. As of 8:24 a.m. local time, spot gold was down 0.2% to $3,269.16 per ounce. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was off 0.1%. Silver and palladium also fell, while platinum rose.

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