Judge ruling to significantly impact Google search and AI

U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta will soon decide the future of Google’s vast search business, which he declared an unlawful monopoly last year. Yet as the court weighs its options, new artificial intelligence rivals may already be chipping away at Google’s dominance faster than any judge’s ruling could take effect.

A key issue at trial has been the rise of AI tools that appear to be eroding Google’s lead in the search engine game. Mehta is set to hear final arguments this Friday from the Justice Department and Google on remedies meant to boost competition in search. His ultimate decision could also shape how AI services gain ground in the search market.

The Justice Department, which sued Google in 2020, wants sweeping changes. It has urged the court to force the company to sell its Chrome browser, restrict it from paying Apple to remain the default search engine, and require it to share its search data with competitors. Regulators say these strong steps are justified by a legal benchmark set more than 20 years ago, when the government attempted to break up Microsoft.

“All three of the DOJ’s major remedies are aimed at helping generative AI providers take share from Google,” said Paul Gallant, a policy analyst at TD Cowen.

Mehta has indicated he plans to issue his ruling in August

The search engine giant counters that the government’s proposed fixes go too far and would cause irreparable damage to its business. Holding about 90% market share of online search queries in the U.S., the company has suggested a narrower approach: tweak its agreements with Apple, Mozilla, and Android to carve out space for rivals. The tech firm says it will appeal the judge’s ruling.

Each year, the company pays roughly $20 billion to Apple for default placement in Apple’s Safari browser. Any change to that arrangement could erase billions from Apple’s profits.

Mehta is weighing whether to stop Google from sharing revenue with Apple under the current deal, which could change how Google is embedded in the Safari browser. Lawyers and experts warn that his decision may also influence future contracts among tech giants over how AI features are featured on their platforms.

The Justice Department is against Google paying Samsung and Motorola to pre-install Gemini

In court, the Justice Department pointed to Google’s more recent efforts to dominate AI-driven search. According to testimony, Google has begun paying Samsung and Motorola to pre-install its new AI system, Gemini, on their devices. The department argues that this practice aims to capture the next wave of internet search and should be banned.

Shares of Alphabet, Google’s parent company, fell sharply this month after an Apple executive testified that Google searches in Safari had declined for the first time in nearly twenty years. The same executive said Apple plans to offer AI options such as ChatGPT or Perplexity in Safari within the following year.

Google responded in a blog post, saying that overall searches for Apple devices and services have actually risen.

“A formidable question that hovers over the entire proceeding is how should the judge take account of emerging developments and the technology that affect the fortunes of all of these companies,” said William Kovacic, a professor of antitrust law at George Washington University and former FTC chairman.

During the trial, Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet, testified that Google aims to finalize a distribution agreement with Apple by midyear. Under that deal, Apple would tap Google’s own AI model and chatbot, Gemini, to answer user queries—an option Apple already offers using OpenAI’s ChatGPT.

Last week, Google announced the U.S. launch of “AI Mode,” a new way to respond to searches with conversational answers rather than the familiar list of blue links. It represents the biggest overhaul of its search engine in years and is powered by Gemini.

Google has been steadily improving Gemini, which supports AI Mode and other features across its products. Although Gemini’s user base has grown in recent months, it still trails ChatGPT in popularity.

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