Binance spot to futures ratio reaches levels not seen since 2023

Binance saw an uptick in activity in the past month, with the biggest boost coming from the futures market. The clear bullish trend expanded demand for active trading with leverage, to make the best of the market’s direction. 

Binance is once again predominantly a futures market, increasing the ratio of futures to spot trading. The dominance of futures trading is near a 1.5-year high, reflecting the increased open interest for BTC and other active assets. The ratio increased vertically in the past month, reflecting the shift in sentiment and risk-taking.

Binance carries $12.8B of the total BTC open interest, remaining the most active market with a slight price premium on the futures markets. 

Futures volumes concentrated on Binance in 2025 as the undisputed leader. However, OKX futures markets showed a growth trend in the year to date. In May, Binance futures markets carried a total of $1.25T in trading volumes, on track to surpass the levels from April. Most of the crypto futures volumes are also concentrated on Bybit and Bitget.

Futures trading points to speculative trend

Growing futures trading suggests the crypto market is back in risk-on mode. Leveraged futures trading offers the biggest short-term return, especially during times of generally positive sentiment. 

On Binance, futures traders are 4.9 times more active compared to spot traders. While accumulation continues for BTC and ETH, especially by institutions and whale wallets, short-term gains are still considered for altcoins or hot assets. 

The growth in futures trading translated into a higher Fear and Greed Index. In the past week, the index moved up from 70 points to 78 points, crossing over into extreme greed territory. Even the fear of liquidations does not stop traders from betting on the BTC reversal of direction. 

Currently, most of the bets on BTC are in the range of $110,000 to $112,000, the two price levels with the biggest liquidity in futures positions. 

In the past day, short positions on BTC also expanded to over 53% on most major exchanges, against 46% for long positions. The risky trader behavior may translate into another short squeeze. Long traders are showing bullish sentiment, but remain cautious against liquidations. 

Stablecoins flow out of spot exchanges

The main source of increased futures and derivative activity is the availability of stablecoins. Binance is the main target for USDT inflows, still carrying over $24B in available tokens. Binance increased its influence, currently holding over 22% of all exchange reserves.

Spot exchanges barely carry a reserve of $90M in ERC-20 USDT stablecoins. Despite the all-time low of BTC and ETH reserves, spot buying from open markets remains much slower. Demand from whales, ETFs and corporate buyers also relies on OTC desks and private deals.

The other source of futures and derivative activity comes from the global market activity on Binance. The exchange has blocked most of Europe from trading derivatives since 2022. Kraken has attempted to fill that niche, offering fully regulated crypto derivatives for the European market.  

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