Polymarket panic? US recession bets hit 57%

Source Cryptopolitan

The online betting markets are freaking out after US President Donald Trump dropped the tariff bombshell. In reaction to this, the odds of a US recession in 2025 have skyrocketed and crypto traders are pricing it in.

Polymarket, the wild west of crypto prediction markets, is now flashing a bright red warning for the economy. It is now pegging the odds of a 2025 recession at 57%. The odds are just climbing up after dipping down to 44% over the past week. However, the crypto linked prediction platform has nailed Trump’s 2024 win.

Trump’s tariffs push recession odds to 57%

Since returning to the office, Trump has been touting a Made-in-USA comeback and calling out countries that he claims have been “ripping off” America for years. In just weeks, the US has gone from a stable economic force to a source of chaos. Tariffs have been slapped on nearly everything, 25% on steel and aluminum, while 245% on Chinese imports.

As per the data shared by Polymarket, recession bets now trade at 57¢, while “no recession” sits at 43¢. The rates peaked at 64¢ for the recession coming in and 36¢ over “no recession”. The tracker has recorded the odds hitting the highest of 66% on April 9. Soon after the spike, sentiments took a dip but the uncertainty prevailed and the odds are rising again.

Polymarket panic? US recession bets hit 57%
Source: Polymarket

Even the giants are feeling the heat, Goldman now sees a 45% recession risk and JPMorgan 60%. Meanwhile, Trump is not backing down as he recently called tariffs “medicine” and said they’ll stay until trade deficits are “cured.”

The odds for a US-China trade deal before June are hitting 38%. The chances of having a deal is trading at 38¢ while “No deal” sits at 63¢. However, traders at Polymarket believe that there are 91% chances of the Fed not changing the rates and just 8% think that a 25 bps cut might be there.

Economists slash US growth to 1.4%

Recession fears are now knocking hard on America’s door and a new Reuters poll shows economists placing the odds of a US recession in the next 12 months at nearly 50%. It went up sharply from just 25% a month ago. Trump’s 90-day pause on new tariffs hasn’t done much in this scenario.

Inflation expectations have spiked, and economists have slashed their growth forecasts. The US economy is now expected to grow just 1.4% in 2025, down from 2.2% predicted just last month. That’s the sharpest downgrade since mid-2022. Economists say the real damage is being done by uncertainty and no one wants to invest or hire when the rules of the game could change overnight. This is becoming the defining feature of Trump’s economic policy.

The global digital assets market which was over the moon when Trump stepped into the White House is suffering too. The cumulative crypto cap remained marginally up on Saturday to stand at $2.69 trillion. As of now, the biggest crypto, Bitcoin has dropped by more than 11% over the past 60 days. BTC is trading at an average price of $85,273 at press time. Its 24-hour trading volume dipped by 32% to stand at $12.4 billion.

Cryptopolitan Academy: Coming Soon - A New Way to Earn Passive Income with DeFi in 2025. Learn More

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Top 3 gainers Bittensor, Akash Network, Saros: AI tokens steady amid wider market consolidation The broader cryptocurrency market is in a consolidation rut, with Bitcoin (BTC) holding above $94,000. However, select Artificial Intelligence (AI) tokens, including Bittensor, Akash Network and Saros, have remained steady in the last 24 hours.
Author  FXStreet
5 Month 06 Day Tue
The broader cryptocurrency market is in a consolidation rut, with Bitcoin (BTC) holding above $94,000. However, select Artificial Intelligence (AI) tokens, including Bittensor, Akash Network and Saros, have remained steady in the last 24 hours.
placeholder
Avalanche Price Forecast: AVAX eyes $30 as bullish momentum builds across key metricsAvalanche (AVAX) price shows signs of renewed bullish strength as it approaches a key resistance level at around $26.07 at the time of writing on Wednesday. Supported by positive on-chain metrics and a favorable technical outlook, the altcoin appears poised for further upside.
Author  FXStreet
5 Month 14 Day Wed
Avalanche (AVAX) price shows signs of renewed bullish strength as it approaches a key resistance level at around $26.07 at the time of writing on Wednesday. Supported by positive on-chain metrics and a favorable technical outlook, the altcoin appears poised for further upside.
placeholder
BNB Price Finds Its Footing — Can Bulls Ignite the Next Leg Up?BNB price is consolidating above the $640 support zone. The price is now showing positive signs and might aim for more gains in the near term. BNB price is attempting to recover from the $640 support
Author  FXStreet
5 Month 16 Day Fri
BNB price is consolidating above the $640 support zone. The price is now showing positive signs and might aim for more gains in the near term. BNB price is attempting to recover from the $640 support
placeholder
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Seems vulnerable below 1.1200, 200-period SMA on H4 holds the keyThe EUR/USD pair ticks higher at the start of a new week amid a softer US Dollar (USD), though it lacks bullish conviction and remains below the 1.1200 round figure through the Asian session.
Author  FXStreet
5 Month 19 Day Mon
The EUR/USD pair ticks higher at the start of a new week amid a softer US Dollar (USD), though it lacks bullish conviction and remains below the 1.1200 round figure through the Asian session.
placeholder
Solana (SOL) Aims Higher With Strong Buyer Support, Next Stop $200?Solana started a fresh increase from the $165 zone. SOL price is now gaining pace and might aim for more gains above the $180 zone. SOL price started a fresh increase above the $170 level against the
Author  NewsBTC
5 Month 22 Day Thu
Solana started a fresh increase from the $165 zone. SOL price is now gaining pace and might aim for more gains above the $180 zone. SOL price started a fresh increase above the $170 level against the
goTop
quote