Cathie Wood says Bitcoin is scarcer than gold

Ark’s Cathie Wood claims in a recent 2026 report that Bitcoin beats gold as a scarce asset because its mathematically fixed supply makes it inherently scarce. Wood observed that gold has surged 166% with a 1.8% annualized increase in global supply, while BTC has climbed 360% with a 1.3% annualized increase in total supply.

According to Wood, an important consideration relevant to this comparison is that Bitcoin and gold miners are likely to respond differently to price signals. Gold miners can boost the production of undiscovered gold, something not possible with Bitcoin.

Wood previously explained that Bitcoin is becoming more scarce than gold because its annual supply increase decreases to 0.9% after each halving. However, the seasoned investor has maintained her optimism on crypto, projecting that BTC could hit $1.5 million by 2030. She later revised the figure slightly downward to $1.2 million, reflecting gold’s market performance and the growing popularity of stablecoins.

BTC beats gold as a diversification asset

Ark’s Cathie Wood also observed that BTC’s correlation with gold is low at 0.14, and even lower with bonds (0.06). That makes it the best source of diversification for asset allocators seeking higher returns per unit of risk in the coming years. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan supported Bitcoin’s scarcity thesis by suggesting that sustained institutional demand that outpaces supply could result in a “parabolic blowoff” for Bitcoin.

The Ark CEO recently suggested that gold prices may have reached “irrational exuberance” relative to money supply. Meanwhile, she championed Bitcoin as the ultimate diversifier, noting that BTC’s correlation to traditional asset classes remains near zero. Wood now argues that allocators have a fiduciary duty to consider crypto assets to optimize portfolio returns and risks. 

Wood further noted that BTC’s mining and supply are strictly limited by protocol, and new issuance is expected to increase by roughly 0.8% per year for the next two years. However, the annual supply is expected to slow to about 0.4% annually from 2028. 

Meanwhile, Bernstein analysts remain bullish on Bitcoin as a better hedging asset than gold, predicting that Bitcoin could hit $200,000 by 2027. Standard Chartered has also halved its 2026 BTC price prediction from $300,000 to $150,000. 

Gold’s 2025 performance creates direct pressure on Bitcoin

Reports suggest that gold’s performance in 2025 created direct competitive pressure on BTC as a store of value and inflation-hedge asset. Gold’s 69% gain YTD outperformed Bitcoin’s 5% YTD decline, raising concerns over BTC’s superiority as an alternative value preservation asset. 

The credibility of the digital gold narrative for Bitcoin also suffered significant damage as a struggling Bitcoin took on gold, which delivered comparatively higher returns. Unlike crypto, gold’s value is derived from universal recognition, a millennial track record as a wealth preservation asset, and physical scarcity. Gold’s non-digital nature apparently provides comfort to investors concerned about technological vulnerabilities and failures.

Meanwhile, Gold’s 2025 performance is reportedly forcing reconsideration of portfolio allocation and raises questions about diversification strategies. Gold allocations are likely to increase based on the precious metal’s demonstration of diversification benefits and crisis-hedging value in 2025.  

However, Geigii Verbitskii, the founder of TYMIO, argues that Bitcoin’s 2025 performance only looks weak in isolation, noting that context matters. According to Verbitskii, BTC rose sharply in 2024, making the 2025 consolidation period completely normal and justified.

The TYMIO executive believes that 2026 is a year of holding rather than buying and selling, further noting that while gold offers stability, BTC offers “asymmetric upside.” He also pointed out that Bitcoin has historically grown faster than gold and expected this trend to continue this year.  

If you're reading this, you’re already ahead. Stay there with our newsletter.