Where Is the Bottom? Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Hits 21-Day Negative Streak

The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has remained negative for 21 consecutive days, the longest streak in the current cycle. Data from Coinglass shows the index has stayed below zero since early November, mirroring Bitcoin’s drop from near $120,000 to around $84,000.

This negative premium indicates ongoing selling pressure on US-based exchanges, reflecting US institutional investor sentiment. Analysts suggest the market may not find a clear bottom until this trend reverses.

Understanding the Coinbase Premium Index

The Coinbase Premium Index tracks the percentage difference between Bitcoin prices on Coinbase, a leading US exchange trading in USD, and Binance, where a large number of retail traders primarily trade in USDT. When the premium is positive, it highlights stronger US investor demand and institutional buying. In contrast, a negative reading reflects selling pressure or reduced US demand versus global markets.

Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index with sustained negative readings, Coinglass

The current 21-day negative streak marks an unprecedented stretch. Usually, the index fluctuates between positive and negative territory. The Coinglass chart shows persistent red bars, indicating sustained negative readings during this cycle. This prolonged period of negativity has mirrored Bitcoin’s price weakness. BTC surpassed $120,000 before sliding down to $84,500 as of November 24, 2025.

Institutional Sentiment and Persistent Selling Pressure

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju emphasized that US institutional sentiment remains subdued. CryptoQuant data shows the hourly Coinbase premium at -0.06, highlighting continued caution from larger domestic players. The corresponding chart illustrates a sharp recent decline after prior sideways movement.

Hourly Coinbase Premium Index with a recent negative trend. Source: CryptoQuant via Ki Young Ju

Meanwhile, analyst Giannis stated that the recent decline is primarily due to aggressive institutional selling on Coinbase rather than retail panic. He noted that global buyers have not been able to absorb the selling pressure, preventing Bitcoin from forming a base. Historically, reversals tend to follow a return of the premium to neutral or positive, suggesting continued downside risk for now.

Open interest data reinforces this dynamic, rising from below 20,000 contracts in late October to about 70,000 by mid-November. Rising open interest alongside falling prices typically points to growing short positions and bearish market sentiment. These trends underscore concerns about sustained selling pressure.

Weekend Effects and Mean Reversion Patterns

Not all analysts see the negative premium as entirely bearish. Market observer CryptoCondom noted that weekends often drive mean reversion in the Coinbase premium. When ETF activity and US-based sellers pause over the weekend, the premium frequently moves closer to zero, supporting some price stability or small gains.

Coinbase premium is showing weekend mean reversion patterns. Source: CryptoCondom

This recurring weekend pattern has appeared in recent weeks, with shaded areas on charts indicating premium rises and price upticks. The contrast between “weekend pumps” and “weekday dumps” highlights the impact of trading flows on Bitcoin’s short-term volatility. However, the broad weekday trend remains negative, as institutional activity intensifies selling pressure.

These weekend effects highlight the influence of US institutions on Bitcoin’s structure. When they pause, global demand offers brief relief. However, when institutions re-enter the market in the week, selling resumes, often overwhelming global buyers and perpetuating the downward trend.

Market Outlook and Bottom Formation

The ongoing negative Coinbase premium signals that Bitcoin has yet to form a sustainable bottom. Historically, trend reversals tend to occur after the premium recovers, indicating shifting institutional behavior. Until that happens, rebounds may be muted or quickly reversed by renewed selling from the US.

Market participants face a challenging scenario. Current conditions resemble past capitulation phases, but the persistent negative premium suggests selling has not yet exhausted itself. Traders must decide if these prices signal long-term accumulation or are simply pauses in a more extended downtrend.

A neutral or positive turn for Coinbase Premium would signal a turning point, indicating the end of institutional selling and renewed demand. Until then, caution is likely to dominate Bitcoin trading strategies.